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NCAAB Championship Sunday Thoughts

Houston coming through with the unexpected CUSA title after beating UTEP was a gorgeous state of affairs, combating my latest tendency for profit dwindling wagers.  One big future play turned a terrible month into a serviceable one.   That play owes much to my efforts in breaking down the CUSA tournament.  

A quick survey of the games on schedule tomorrow, and Minnesota +4 immediately stands out, as my chalk stipulation had them at a better chance to win the BIG TEN tournament compared to offshore numbers. It appears to be a favorable situation for the Golden Gophers, the Buckeyes needed a heroic buzzer beater by All-American Evan Turner to sneak by Michigan, and then escaped with a hard fought, emotional 2OT victory versus Illinois.   All the while Minnesota was out-willing Michigan State and demoralizing the sans Hummel Purdue Boilermakers.   Minnesota should be a solid bet for tomorrow, but I think it peradventure to say I will make the wager based on regret, regret that I didn’t adhere to my own comprehensive analysis of Minnesota heading into the tournament, and missed out on the 20/1 odds appropriated by a variety of books.   Could be seen as a forced wager, though seemingly a solid investment nonetheless.

Here are adjusted efficiency lines, and the lines based on conference spreads for each game:

Efficiency Average Spread
Georgia Tech 10.5 Georgia Tech 10.5
Duke -10.5 Duke -10.5
Richmond 1 Richmond 2.5
Temple -1 Temple -2.5
Mississippi St 8.5 Mississippi St 6
Kentucky -8.5 Kentucky -6
Minnesota 5 Minnesota 3
Ohio State -5 Ohio State -3

Richmond has an advantage here, based on regular season performance and convened line. These numbers do not include tournament play. I give up on the A10 though, Dayton and Rhode Island have been the proverbial thorn in my degenerated side, inducing much head banging against wall to quell the pain of being imminently screwed. Just Minnesota for me.

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Big Ten Tournament Breakdown

CBS Bracket here.

Bracket Project has four Big 10 teams in, with the lowest seed in conference at a 5 (Michigan State).  Illinois has a slim chance, heading outwards on that now proverbial S-curve, a solid showing in the Big 10 tournament may secure their position.  Here is how the chalk stipulation plays out.

First, using the average  spread appropriate throughout the conference season:

BIG10 TOURNAMENT AVERAGE SPREAD
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Final
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Michigan -10 -531









Iowa 10 434
Michigan 6.5 239









Ohio State -6.5 -293












Ohio State -2 -143






Wisconsin -5.5 -242
Wisconsin 2 117






Illinois 5.5 198






Northwestern -7.5 -345






Ohio State 2 123
Indiana 7.5 282
Northwestern 11 485



Purdue -2 -150



Purdue -11 -592






Minnesota -9 -435



Purdue -2 -145



Penn State 9 356
Minnesota 3 140
Michigan State 2 119






Michigan St -3 -171


















The odds and some comparisons if such were played out:

Big10 Average Spread Odds
Team True Odds SBET GREEK BODOG
Purdue 235 450 350 450
Ohio State 428 150 250 175
Michigan State 583 175 200 215
Wisconsin 747 200 200 200
Minnesota 1765 1500 2000 2000
Illinois 4488 1300 1500 2000
Michigan 4600 6500 2000 3000
Northwestern 15773 5000 1500 4000
Penn State 169364 7000 2500 3000
Iowa 321421 110000 2500 3000
Indiana 1023844 100000 2500 3000

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SEC Tournament Breakdown

CBSSports bracket here.

Just to clarify, I have constructed a conditional “chalk” model for essentially every major conference tournament, creating a formulation to demonstrate the tournament as it materializes if the favored team, or the team with an organic statistical advantage were to advance from round to round. One bracket is based on conference efficiency ratings, the other bracket based on average spread. More explanation here. Instead of running several iterations using seasonal Pythagorean Win percentages, and a deliberate postulation based on statistical precision, I’m searching for the best possible value assuming the match-ups in each round are unconditionally the better team. Thus far I’ve found some value in Rhode Island, and Houston. You can still just do an open parlay (or read this) for each team if the conference future odds are off the board.

The latest Bracket Project has 5 SEC teams in, with two teams (Florida 12, Ole Miss 13), placed in a precarious position, possibly too dependent on the results of other teams in conferences for their tournament destiny.

Here is the efficiency performance bracket:

SEC TOURNAMENT EFFICIENCY PERFORMANCE
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Final
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Alabama -4 -208








South Carolina 4 170
Alabama 11.5 495








Kentucky -11.5 -604





Tennessee -14 -881



Kentucky -8.5 -399


LSU 14 721
Tennessee PK -109
Mississippi 8.5 326





Mississippi PK -111





Florida -6 -280






Kentucky -7 -321
Auburn 6 229
Florida PK -109



Vanderbilt 7 262



Mississippi St PK -111





Arkansas 1 101



Mississippi St 1.5 112


Georgia -1 -124
Georgia 4 170
Vanderbilt -1.5 -137





Vanderbilt -4 -207
















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PAC10 Tournament Breakdown

Official CBSSPORTS bracket is here.

Bracket Project has only two PAC10 teams in (California 8, Washington 12), with Arizona State on the wrong end of the S-curve.  This rather arbitrary and frivolous placement of teams on/off/in the bubble by the orgy of outlets that think it wise to exert much effort on the matter takes on a somewhat promiscuous quality, serving as the underlying offspring of boredom.  Now lets breakdown the PAC10 bubble situation.

Just going to post the tables, no rhetoric necessary to deliberate on any sort of conference resolve.   The league is awful.

PAC10 TOURNAMENT EFFICIENCY PERFORMANCE
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Final
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Team / Spread ML
Oregon 0.5 -101









Washington St -0.5 -119
Washington St 12.5 561









California -12.5 -686












California -4.5 -225






UCLA 4.5 180
Arizona 4.5 184






Arizona -4.5 -219















California -1 -129



Stanford 7 259



Washingon 1 106



Arizona St -7 -317












Arizona St 2 122






Oregon St 7.5 284
Washington -2 -149






Washington -7.5 -347






PAC10 Efficiency Odds
Team True Odds SBET GREEK 5DIMES
California 198 140 125 135
Washington 357 200 200 250
Arizona State 648 250 500 360
Arizona 868 700 800 850
Oregon State 4796 3000 500 4000
UCLA 5049 900 650 1200
Stanford 7880 2500 500 2500
Washington St 26527 4500 500 5500
Oregon 36146 5000 500 7500

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MWC Tournament Odds Comparison

CBS bracket is here.

The Bracket Project currently has UNLV (11), BYU (4), and New Mexico (3) in lock status, obviously. San Diego State is hanging by a loose thread, and to ensure their place among the field of 65, may need to at least come away with a convincing win over 5 seed Colorado State. SDSU’s best argument is the avoidance of the bad loss to obliterate any other season accomplishments. While the two point loss to Wyoming in Laramie looks egregious, that is essentially the only scar on a very bubble-esque resume. IMO they need chalk to win the conference tournaments, lest their tourney spot be ousted owning to the imminent displacement induced by major conference mediocrity.

Here are their tournament offshore odds accompanied by the odds set forth by the formulaic conditions:

MWC Average Spread Odds
Team True Odds SIA GREEK 5DIMES
BYU 152 -164 -250 100
New Mexico 395 200 200 235
UNLV 554 300 220 240
San Diego State 717 500 600 700
Utah 8121 1500 1500 15000
Colorado St 32808 3000 2800 10000
TCU 54724 5000 5000 50000
Wyoming 262186 5000 5000 200000
Air Force 1144392 5000 5000 200000

MWC Efficiency Odds
Team True Odds SIA GREEK 5DIMES
BYU -106 -164 -250 100
UNLV 439 300 220 240
San Diego State 848 500 600 700
New Mexico 886 200 200 235
Utah 14621 1500 1500 15000
Colorado St 43162 3000 2800 10000
TCU 233784 5000 5000 50000
Wyoming 845602 5000 5000 200000
Air Force 23586166 5000 5000 200000

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