NCAAB Championship Sunday Thoughts
Posted by SportsObjective in Featurific, NCAAB, Tournaments, efficiency on March 15, 2010
Houston coming through with the unexpected CUSA title after beating UTEP was a gorgeous state of affairs, combating my latest tendency for profit dwindling wagers. One big future play turned a terrible month into a serviceable one. That play owes much to my efforts in breaking down the CUSA tournament.
A quick survey of the games on schedule tomorrow, and Minnesota +4 immediately stands out, as my chalk stipulation had them at a better chance to win the BIG TEN tournament compared to offshore numbers. It appears to be a favorable situation for the Golden Gophers, the Buckeyes needed a heroic buzzer beater by All-American Evan Turner to sneak by Michigan, and then escaped with a hard fought, emotional 2OT victory versus Illinois. All the while Minnesota was out-willing Michigan State and demoralizing the sans Hummel Purdue Boilermakers. Minnesota should be a solid bet for tomorrow, but I think it peradventure to say I will make the wager based on regret, regret that I didn’t adhere to my own comprehensive analysis of Minnesota heading into the tournament, and missed out on the 20/1 odds appropriated by a variety of books. Could be seen as a forced wager, though seemingly a solid investment nonetheless.
Here are adjusted efficiency lines, and the lines based on conference spreads for each game:
| Efficiency | Average Spread | ||
| Georgia Tech | 10.5 | Georgia Tech | 10.5 |
| Duke | -10.5 | Duke | -10.5 |
| Richmond | 1 | Richmond | 2.5 |
| Temple | -1 | Temple | -2.5 |
| Mississippi St | 8.5 | Mississippi St | 6 |
| Kentucky | -8.5 | Kentucky | -6 |
| Minnesota | 5 | Minnesota | 3 |
| Ohio State | -5 | Ohio State | -3 |
Richmond has an advantage here, based on regular season performance and convened line. These numbers do not include tournament play. I give up on the A10 though, Dayton and Rhode Island have been the proverbial thorn in my degenerated side, inducing much head banging against wall to quell the pain of being imminently screwed. Just Minnesota for me.
Big Ten Tournament Breakdown
Posted by SportsObjective in Betting, Big 10, Featurific, NCAAB, Tournaments, efficiency on March 11, 2010
CBS Bracket here.
Bracket Project has four Big 10 teams in, with the lowest seed in conference at a 5 (Michigan State). Illinois has a slim chance, heading outwards on that now proverbial S-curve, a solid showing in the Big 10 tournament may secure their position. Here is how the chalk stipulation plays out.
First, using the average spread appropriate throughout the conference season:
| BIG10 TOURNAMENT AVERAGE SPREAD | |||||||||||
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Final | ||||||||
| Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | ||||
| Michigan -10 | -531 | ||||||||||
| Iowa 10 | 434 | Michigan 6.5 | 239 | ||||||||
| Ohio State -6.5 | -293 | ||||||||||
| Ohio State -2 | -143 | ||||||||||
| Wisconsin -5.5 | -242 | Wisconsin 2 | 117 | ||||||||
| Illinois 5.5 | 198 | ||||||||||
| Northwestern -7.5 | -345 | Ohio State 2 | 123 | ||||||||
| Indiana 7.5 | 282 | Northwestern 11 | 485 | Purdue -2 | -150 | ||||||
| Purdue -11 | -592 | ||||||||||
| Minnesota -9 | -435 | Purdue -2 | -145 | ||||||||
| Penn State 9 | 356 | Minnesota 3 | 140 | Michigan State 2 | 119 | ||||||
| Michigan St -3 | -171 | ||||||||||
The odds and some comparisons if such were played out:
| Big10 Average Spread Odds | ||||
| Team | True Odds | SBET | GREEK | BODOG |
| Purdue | 235 | 450 | 350 | 450 |
| Ohio State | 428 | 150 | 250 | 175 |
| Michigan State | 583 | 175 | 200 | 215 |
| Wisconsin | 747 | 200 | 200 | 200 |
| Minnesota | 1765 | 1500 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Illinois | 4488 | 1300 | 1500 | 2000 |
| Michigan | 4600 | 6500 | 2000 | 3000 |
| Northwestern | 15773 | 5000 | 1500 | 4000 |
| Penn State | 169364 | 7000 | 2500 | 3000 |
| Iowa | 321421 | 110000 | 2500 | 3000 |
| Indiana | 1023844 | 100000 | 2500 | 3000 |
SEC Tournament Breakdown
Posted by SportsObjective in Betting, Featurific, NCAAB, SEC, Tournaments, efficiency on March 11, 2010
CBSSports bracket here.
Just to clarify, I have constructed a conditional “chalk” model for essentially every major conference tournament, creating a formulation to demonstrate the tournament as it materializes if the favored team, or the team with an organic statistical advantage were to advance from round to round. One bracket is based on conference efficiency ratings, the other bracket based on average spread. More explanation here. Instead of running several iterations using seasonal Pythagorean Win percentages, and a deliberate postulation based on statistical precision, I’m searching for the best possible value assuming the match-ups in each round are unconditionally the better team. Thus far I’ve found some value in Rhode Island, and Houston. You can still just do an open parlay (or read this) for each team if the conference future odds are off the board.
The latest Bracket Project has 5 SEC teams in, with two teams (Florida 12, Ole Miss 13), placed in a precarious position, possibly too dependent on the results of other teams in conferences for their tournament destiny.
Here is the efficiency performance bracket:
| SEC TOURNAMENT EFFICIENCY PERFORMANCE | ||||||||||
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Final | |||||||
| Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | |||
| Alabama -4 | -208 | |||||||||
| South Carolina 4 | 170 | Alabama 11.5 | 495 | |||||||
| Kentucky -11.5 | -604 | |||||||||
| Tennessee -14 | -881 | Kentucky -8.5 | -399 | |||||||
| LSU 14 | 721 | Tennessee PK | -109 | Mississippi 8.5 | 326 | |||||
| Mississippi PK | -111 | |||||||||
| Florida -6 | -280 | Kentucky -7 | -321 | |||||||
| Auburn 6 | 229 | Florida PK | -109 | Vanderbilt 7 | 262 | |||||
| Mississippi St PK | -111 | |||||||||
| Arkansas 1 | 101 | Mississippi St 1.5 | 112 | |||||||
| Georgia -1 | -124 | Georgia 4 | 170 | Vanderbilt -1.5 | -137 | |||||
| Vanderbilt -4 | -207 | |||||||||
PAC10 Tournament Breakdown
Posted by SportsObjective in Betting, Featurific, NCAAB, Pac10, Tournaments, efficiency on March 11, 2010
Official CBSSPORTS bracket is here.
Bracket Project has only two PAC10 teams in (California 8, Washington 12), with Arizona State on the wrong end of the S-curve. This rather arbitrary and frivolous placement of teams on/off/in the bubble by the orgy of outlets that think it wise to exert much effort on the matter takes on a somewhat promiscuous quality, serving as the underlying offspring of boredom. Now lets breakdown the PAC10 bubble situation.
Just going to post the tables, no rhetoric necessary to deliberate on any sort of conference resolve. The league is awful.
| PAC10 TOURNAMENT EFFICIENCY PERFORMANCE | |||||||||||
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Final | ||||||||
| Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | Team / Spread | ML | ||||
| Oregon 0.5 | -101 | ||||||||||
| Washington St -0.5 | -119 | Washington St 12.5 | 561 | ||||||||
| California -12.5 | -686 | ||||||||||
| California -4.5 | -225 | ||||||||||
| UCLA 4.5 | 180 | Arizona 4.5 | 184 | ||||||||
| Arizona -4.5 | -219 | ||||||||||
| California -1 | -129 | ||||||||||
| Stanford 7 | 259 | Washingon 1 | 106 | ||||||||
| Arizona St -7 | -317 | ||||||||||
| Arizona St 2 | 122 | ||||||||||
| Oregon St 7.5 | 284 | Washington -2 | -149 | ||||||||
| Washington -7.5 | -347 | ||||||||||
| PAC10 Efficiency Odds | ||||
| Team | True Odds | SBET | GREEK | 5DIMES |
| California | 198 | 140 | 125 | 135 |
| Washington | 357 | 200 | 200 | 250 |
| Arizona State | 648 | 250 | 500 | 360 |
| Arizona | 868 | 700 | 800 | 850 |
| Oregon State | 4796 | 3000 | 500 | 4000 |
| UCLA | 5049 | 900 | 650 | 1200 |
| Stanford | 7880 | 2500 | 500 | 2500 |
| Washington St | 26527 | 4500 | 500 | 5500 |
| Oregon | 36146 | 5000 | 500 | 7500 |
MWC Tournament Odds Comparison
Posted by SportsObjective in Betting, Featurific, MWC, NCAAB, efficiency on March 11, 2010
CBS bracket is here.
The Bracket Project currently has UNLV (11), BYU (4), and New Mexico (3) in lock status, obviously. San Diego State is hanging by a loose thread, and to ensure their place among the field of 65, may need to at least come away with a convincing win over 5 seed Colorado State. SDSU’s best argument is the avoidance of the bad loss to obliterate any other season accomplishments. While the two point loss to Wyoming in Laramie looks egregious, that is essentially the only scar on a very bubble-esque resume. IMO they need chalk to win the conference tournaments, lest their tourney spot be ousted owning to the imminent displacement induced by major conference mediocrity.
Here are their tournament offshore odds accompanied by the odds set forth by the formulaic conditions:
| MWC Average Spread Odds | ||||
| Team | True Odds | SIA | GREEK | 5DIMES |
| BYU | 152 | -164 | -250 | 100 |
| New Mexico | 395 | 200 | 200 | 235 |
| UNLV | 554 | 300 | 220 | 240 |
| San Diego State | 717 | 500 | 600 | 700 |
| Utah | 8121 | 1500 | 1500 | 15000 |
| Colorado St | 32808 | 3000 | 2800 | 10000 |
| TCU | 54724 | 5000 | 5000 | 50000 |
| Wyoming | 262186 | 5000 | 5000 | 200000 |
| Air Force | 1144392 | 5000 | 5000 | 200000 |
| MWC Efficiency Odds | ||||
| Team | True Odds | SIA | GREEK | 5DIMES |
| BYU | -106 | -164 | -250 | 100 |
| UNLV | 439 | 300 | 220 | 240 |
| San Diego State | 848 | 500 | 600 | 700 |
| New Mexico | 886 | 200 | 200 | 235 |
| Utah | 14621 | 1500 | 1500 | 15000 |
| Colorado St | 43162 | 3000 | 2800 | 10000 |
| TCU | 233784 | 5000 | 5000 | 50000 |
| Wyoming | 845602 | 5000 | 5000 | 200000 |
| Air Force | 23586166 | 5000 | 5000 | 200000 |
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