Comparing Rating Systems For NCAA Tournament
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, kenpom, NCAAB, Pinnacle, tournament on March 15, 2012
The images represent how each rating system projects the NCAAB Tournament. The higher rated team was selected for each matchup. For the bracket labeled “PINNY”, the future odds from Pinnacle were used to assess team-by-team comparison. Click on the image for full-size view.
-
- KENPOM
-
- BBSTATE
-
- PINNY
-
- SAGARIN
-
- RPI
NCAAB Conference Tourney’s: Pinny v KenPom
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in kenpom, NCAAB, Pinnacle on March 6, 2012
KenPom LOG5′s here
Top 5 Value:
Kansas
Indiana
Syracuse
Ohio State
SEC Field
| ACC Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| UNC | 53.52% | 52.20% | -0.0132 |
| Duke | 21.30% | 19.80% | -0.0150 |
| FSU | 10.39% | 9.90% | -0.0049 |
| UVA | 6.65% | 10.40% | 0.0375 |
| NC State | 3.44% | 2.40% | -0.0104 |
| Miami | 2.48% | 3.70% | 0.0122 |
| Field | 2.22% | 1.60% | -0.0062 |
| PAC 12 Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| California | 30.29% | 32.30% | 0.0201 |
| Oregon | 15.94% | 12.20% | -0.0374 |
| UCLA | 14.82% | 14.90% | 0.0008 |
| Washington | 14.76% | 12.20% | -0.0256 |
| Arizona | 9.47% | 12.70% | 0.0323 |
| Stanford | 5.98% | 8.00% | 0.0202 |
| Colorado | 3.93% | 3.90% | -0.0003 |
| Oregon St. | 2.87% | 2.80% | -0.0007 |
| Field | 1.94% | 1.00% | -0.0094 |
| SEC Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Kentucky | 72.63% | 68.70% | -0.0393 |
| Field | 27.37% | 31.30% | 0.0393 |
| Big East Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Syracuse | 33.02% | 39.50% | 0.0648 |
| Marquette | 18.42% | 20.10% | 0.0168 |
| Georgetown | 13.81% | 15.10% | 0.0129 |
| Notre Dame | 7.21% | 7.90% | 0.0069 |
| Cincy | 6.94% | 5.60% | -0.0134 |
| Loserville | 6.94% | 5.50% | -0.0144 |
| USF | 3.53% | 1.50% | -0.0203 |
| WVU | 3.52% | 1.90% | -0.0162 |
| Uconn | 2.78% | 1.40% | -0.0138 |
| Seton Hall | 1.27% | 0.70% | -0.0057 |
| Pitt | 1.08% | 0.20% | -0.0088 |
| St. John’s | 0.37% | 0.08% | -0.0029 |
| Field | 1.10% | 0.52% | -0.0058 |
| Big Ten Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Ohio State | 32.29% | 37.20% | 0.0491 |
| Michigan St. | 23.34% | 27.20% | 0.0386 |
| Michigan | 15.96% | 5.10% | -0.1086 |
| Wisconsin | 10.48% | 10.40% | -0.0008 |
| Indiana | 9.74% | 16.50% | 0.0676 |
| Purdue | 3.73% | 2.50% | -0.0123 |
| Nwestern | 2.17% | 0.50% | -0.0167 |
| Illinois | 0.79% | 0.20% | -0.0059 |
| Field | 1.51% | 0.40% | -0.0111 |
| Big 12 Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Kansas | 39.33% | 54.60% | 0.1527 |
| Missouri | 32.93% | 23.00% | -0.0993 |
| Baylor | 9.43% | 7.30% | -0.0213 |
| Kansas St. | 6.52% | 5.00% | -0.0152 |
| Iowa St | 5.97% | 4.50% | -0.0147 |
| Texas | 4.96% | 5.00% | 0.0004 |
| Oklahoma St | 0.57% | 0.40% | -0.0017 |
| Field | 0.29% | 0.20% | -0.0009 |
NCAAB Shady Line Alert
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in kenpom, NCAAB, Picks on January 18, 2010
#15 Connecticut PK -110
Michigan +1 -110
$55 / $50
I feel like I should apologize, offer some sort of conciliatory remark for taking advantage of this situation. The Math Geeks have Michigan winning this game despite what perception would have us believe. Let them do all the homework, while the public throws away money with serene blindness in pursuit of pleasure.
The Big East has another game that found my interest, and it tips off early.
Georgetown +5 -110
Villanova -5 -110
$55 / $50
Early move down on the line, and being a market reader, not one to breakdown games, I’m inclined to look only a little further. To find something else that I can lean on. And once again the Math Geeks offer cushion lest I fell on the callous nature of a guess.
Proceed with caution, I suck at picking Big East games.
NCAAB Trio of Guesses with Reasoning
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in ESPN, Featurific, kenpom, NCAAB, Picks, Strategy on January 14, 2010
Please allow due diligence for lofty composition, or just scan post for words in bold for the winners.
Boston College @ Duke
High lines and low lines, always try to find highs and lows. Duke is 11-5-1 ATS since the 2004 season as a conference favorite of 15 or more. That’s where I chose to end my research. Any further research would put a severe hindrance on my opportunity cost, thereby lowering the absolute value of wager placed in proportion to time invested. Why did I choose not to look past the year 2004? Thomas Friedman said it best, around this time, the world transformed into a “flat world.” Immediacy of information not only supercharged the infrastructure of communication, supply chain, and management systems, but had the intolerable effect of the bookies creating ‘sharper’ lines. The wireless world we live in brings expediency of information. The paradigm of the bookie operation invariably coincides with significant changes in society. Every pecuniary endeavor, whether of avocation or vocation, sees greater benefits when utilizing the principles of calculated efficiency.
NCAAB Monday Shady Line Alert
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Featurific, kenpom, NCAAB, News, Picks on January 11, 2010
#6 Villanova @ Louisville
Line is conspicuously disproportional to the ranking. The math geeks like Louisville, the bookies like Louisville, but the rankings and public do not.
A brief survey of Kenpom shows there might be a false ranking on Villanova. Their schedule is splattered with home games vs serviceable teams amidst little sisters of the poor. They are 1-1 on the road.
#6 Villanova +3 -110
Louisville -3 -110
$110 / $100
Recent Comments