Comparing Rating Systems For NCAA Tournament
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, kenpom, NCAAB, Pinnacle, tournament on March 15, 2012
The images represent how each rating system projects the NCAAB Tournament. The higher rated team was selected for each matchup. For the bracket labeled “PINNY”, the future odds from Pinnacle were used to assess team-by-team comparison. Click on the image for full-size view.
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- KENPOM
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- BBSTATE
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- PINNY
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- SAGARIN
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- RPI
NCAA Tourney KP vs Pinny
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, NCAAB, Pinnacle on March 15, 2012
Same thing as conference tournaments. SEC Field hit at 3/1 odds, the other four lost. A brief survey of a hypothetical bankroll outcome demonstrated the prodigious and frightening force of the Kelly Criterion and all the emotional turmoil likely to beget its constituency. Flat bettors would have come away in the negative, but with an air of optimism and satisfaction having lingered for hitting a future.
KenPom’s LOG5 predictions are here. If you don’t know what that means, to wit:
LOG5 = (a – a * b)/(a + b – 2 * a * b)
“a” and “b” here are winning percentages. KenPom uses his pythagorean winning percentages calculated by PPP and tempo rather than just points scored for and against, with an exponent of around 12.
(Numbers in each cell represent percentages sans the non-obligatory “%” symbol).
| TOP 5 | |||
| REGION | CHAMP | ||
| Ohio St | 10.54 | Ohio St | 3.55 |
| Mich St | 7.64 | Wisconsin | 2.24 |
| Wisconsin | 6.97 | Mich St | 1.98 |
| Kansas | 6.8 | Kansas | 1.74 |
| Indiana | 3.38 | Indiana | 0.67 |
Mr. Pomeroy “likes” the Big Ten, Pinnacle doesn’t.
| SOUTH | ||||||
| KP | PINNY | KP-P | ||||
| TEAM | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP |
| Kentucky | 47.9 | 19.7 | 47.4 | 27.78 | 0.5 | -8.08 |
| Wichita St | 11.8 | 2.6 | 8.43 | 2.32 | 3.37 | 0.28 |
| Indiana | 9.2 | 1.7 | 5.82 | 1.03 | 3.38 | 0.67 |
| Baylor | 10.9 | 1.7 | 12.08 | 2.82 | -1.18 | -1.12 |
| Duke | 9.5 | 1.7 | 12.08 | 4.8 | -2.58 | -3.1 |
| UNLV | 3 | 0.2 | 3.51 | 0.73 | -0.51 | -0.53 |
| Iowa St. | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.31 | 0.42 | 0.39 | -0.32 |
| Notre Dame | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.96 | 0.44 | -0.06 | -0.34 |
| Uconn | 0.9 | 0.06 | 2.58 | 1.07 | -1.68 | -1.01 |
| Xavier | 0.09 | 0.04 | 1.32 | 0.43 | -1.23 | -0.39 |
| S Dakota St. | 0.8 | 0.03 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.39 | -0.26 |
| VCU | 0.5 | 0.02 | 0.79 | 0.29 | -0.29 | -0.27 |
| Colorado | 0.4 | 0.01 | 0.67 | 0.29 | -0.27 | -0.28 |
| NMSU | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 0.35 | -0.11 | -0.34 |
| Lehigh | 0.3 | 0.007 | 0.4 | 0.21 | -0.1 | -0.203 |
| WKY | 0.001 | 0.82 | 0.32 | -0.819 | -0.32 | |
| MIDWEST | ||||||
| KP | PINNY | KP-P | ||||
| TEAM | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP |
| UNC | 28.5 | 6.6 | 32.95 | 13.64 | -4.45 | -7.04 |
| Kansas | 33.7 | 9.1 | 26.9 | 7.36 | 6.8 | 1.74 |
| Gtown | 9.7 | 1.4 | 7.31 | 1.45 | 2.39 | -0.05 |
| Michigan | 5.7 | 0.5 | 4.57 | 0.88 | 1.13 | -0.38 |
| Temple | 2.3 | 0.1 | 3.92 | 0.64 | -1.62 | -0.54 |
| SDSU | 0.9 | 0.03 | 2.65 | 0.52 | -1.75 | -0.49 |
| St. Mary’s | 1.2 | 0.05 | 2.65 | 0.59 | -1.45 | -0.54 |
| Creighton | 2 | 0.1 | 1.61 | 0.43 | 0.39 | -0.33 |
| Alabama | 3.1 | 0.2 | 2.04 | 0.57 | 1.06 | -0.37 |
| Purdue | 3.9 | 0.3 | 3.92 | 0.73 | -0.02 | -0.43 |
| NC State | 1.5 | 0.07 | 4.57 | 0.73 | -3.07 | -0.66 |
| USF | 0.3 | 0.008 | 0.81 | 0.66 | -0.51 | -0.652 |
| Ohio | 0.5 | 0.01 | 0.81 | 0.29 | -0.31 | -0.28 |
| Belmont | 4 | 0.03 | 3.92 | 0.85 | 0.08 | -0.82 |
| Detroit | 0.07 | 0.54 | 0.21 | -0.47 | -0.21 | |
| Vermont | 0.03 | 0.84 | 0.39 | -0.81 | -0.39 | |
| WEST | ||||||
| KP | PINNY | KP-P | ||||
| TEAM | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP |
| Mich St | 35.2 | 12.4 | 27.56 | 10.42 | 7.64 | 1.98 |
| Missouri | 23.1 | 5.3 | 22.63 | 8.31 | 0.47 | -3.01 |
| Memphis | 8.2 | 1.7 | 5.67 | 1.61 | 2.53 | 0.09 |
| New Mexico | 7.1 | 1 | 7.84 | 1.33 | -0.74 | -0.33 |
| Marquette | 7.5 | 0.9 | 9 | 2.34 | -1.5 | -1.44 |
| Loserville | 4.7 | 0.5 | 9.08 | 2.61 | -4.38 | -2.11 |
| Florida | 4.4 | 0.5 | 3.97 | 0.8 | 0.43 | -0.3 |
| St. Louis | 3.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.57 | 1.2 | -0.07 |
| Virginia | 2.5 | 0.2 | 1.78 | 0.43 | 0.72 | -0.23 |
| Murray St. | 1.4 | 0.07 | 3.05 | 0.73 | -1.65 | -0.66 |
| LBSU | 1 | 0.06 | 1.3 | 0.29 | -0.3 | -0.23 |
| BYU | 0.5 | 0.02 | 3.91 | 0.97 | -3.41 | -0.95 |
| Davidson | 0.3 | 0.009 | 0.71 | 0.29 | -0.41 | -0.281 |
| Colorado St. | 0.4 | 0.008 | 0.52 | 0.29 | -0.12 | -0.282 |
| LIU | 0.003 | 0.39 | 0.17 | -0.387 | -0.17 | |
| Norfolk St | 0.0001 | 0.39 | 0.21 | -0.3899 | -0.21 | |
| EAST | ||||||
| KP | PINNY | KP-P | ||||
| TEAM | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP |
| Syracuse | 17.5 | 4.4 | 18.22 | 5.72 | -0.72 | -1.32 |
| Ohio St | 45.9 | 19.3 | 35.36 | 15.75 | 10.54 | 3.55 |
| FSU | 3.9 | 0.5 | 9.29 | 4.08 | -5.39 | -3.58 |
| Wisconsin | 16.2 | 4.2 | 9.23 | 1.96 | 6.97 | 2.24 |
| Vanderbilt | 4.9 | 0.8 | 7.92 | 2.81 | -3.02 | -2.01 |
| Cincinnati | 1.8 | 0.2 | 4.39 | 1.03 | -2.59 | -0.83 |
| Gonzaga | 1.7 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 0.59 | -0.7 | -0.49 |
| Kansas St | 3.4 | 0.4 | 4.39 | 0.98 | -0.99 | -0.58 |
| S. Miss | 0.2 | 0.006 | 0.98 | 0.34 | -0.78 | -0.334 |
| WVU | 0.8 | 0.05 | 2.4 | 0.59 | -1.6 | -0.54 |
| Texas | 2.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 0.52 | 0.1 | -0.32 |
| Harvard | 0.7 | 0.04 | 1.11 | 0.29 | -0.41 | -0.25 |
| Montana | 0.09 | 0.002 | 0.79 | 0.29 | -0.7 | -0.288 |
| St. Bona | 0.6 | 0.03 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.07 | -0.26 |
| Loyola | 0.02 | 0.4 | 0.17 | -0.38 | -0.17 | |
| UNC-Ashe | 0.03 | 0.4 | 0.17 | -0.37 | -0.17 | |
NCAAB Conference Tourney’s: Pinny v KenPom
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in kenpom, NCAAB, Pinnacle on March 6, 2012
KenPom LOG5′s here
Top 5 Value:
Kansas
Indiana
Syracuse
Ohio State
SEC Field
| ACC Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| UNC | 53.52% | 52.20% | -0.0132 |
| Duke | 21.30% | 19.80% | -0.0150 |
| FSU | 10.39% | 9.90% | -0.0049 |
| UVA | 6.65% | 10.40% | 0.0375 |
| NC State | 3.44% | 2.40% | -0.0104 |
| Miami | 2.48% | 3.70% | 0.0122 |
| Field | 2.22% | 1.60% | -0.0062 |
| PAC 12 Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| California | 30.29% | 32.30% | 0.0201 |
| Oregon | 15.94% | 12.20% | -0.0374 |
| UCLA | 14.82% | 14.90% | 0.0008 |
| Washington | 14.76% | 12.20% | -0.0256 |
| Arizona | 9.47% | 12.70% | 0.0323 |
| Stanford | 5.98% | 8.00% | 0.0202 |
| Colorado | 3.93% | 3.90% | -0.0003 |
| Oregon St. | 2.87% | 2.80% | -0.0007 |
| Field | 1.94% | 1.00% | -0.0094 |
| SEC Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Kentucky | 72.63% | 68.70% | -0.0393 |
| Field | 27.37% | 31.30% | 0.0393 |
| Big East Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Syracuse | 33.02% | 39.50% | 0.0648 |
| Marquette | 18.42% | 20.10% | 0.0168 |
| Georgetown | 13.81% | 15.10% | 0.0129 |
| Notre Dame | 7.21% | 7.90% | 0.0069 |
| Cincy | 6.94% | 5.60% | -0.0134 |
| Loserville | 6.94% | 5.50% | -0.0144 |
| USF | 3.53% | 1.50% | -0.0203 |
| WVU | 3.52% | 1.90% | -0.0162 |
| Uconn | 2.78% | 1.40% | -0.0138 |
| Seton Hall | 1.27% | 0.70% | -0.0057 |
| Pitt | 1.08% | 0.20% | -0.0088 |
| St. John’s | 0.37% | 0.08% | -0.0029 |
| Field | 1.10% | 0.52% | -0.0058 |
| Big Ten Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Ohio State | 32.29% | 37.20% | 0.0491 |
| Michigan St. | 23.34% | 27.20% | 0.0386 |
| Michigan | 15.96% | 5.10% | -0.1086 |
| Wisconsin | 10.48% | 10.40% | -0.0008 |
| Indiana | 9.74% | 16.50% | 0.0676 |
| Purdue | 3.73% | 2.50% | -0.0123 |
| Nwestern | 2.17% | 0.50% | -0.0167 |
| Illinois | 0.79% | 0.20% | -0.0059 |
| Field | 1.51% | 0.40% | -0.0111 |
| Big 12 Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Kansas | 39.33% | 54.60% | 0.1527 |
| Missouri | 32.93% | 23.00% | -0.0993 |
| Baylor | 9.43% | 7.30% | -0.0213 |
| Kansas St. | 6.52% | 5.00% | -0.0152 |
| Iowa St | 5.97% | 4.50% | -0.0147 |
| Texas | 4.96% | 5.00% | 0.0004 |
| Oklahoma St | 0.57% | 0.40% | -0.0017 |
| Field | 0.29% | 0.20% | -0.0009 |
Sweet 16 Thursday Log5 MLs
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, NCAAB, tournament on March 24, 2011
I simulated Thursday’s sweet 16 games three separate times through 10,000 iterations using each rating system (avg line, kenpom, sagarin) and here are the ML results compared to Pinnacle
Do the opposite of what the ratings say, Pinnacle knows more than gambling degenerates.
NCAA Tourney Ken Pom Simulations
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, NCAAB, tournament on March 17, 2011
The winner of these bracket contests usually, at least in retrospect, finds a solid equilibrium between maximizing variance and taking higher seeds. Typically a stable strategy involves, to a first approximation, picking chalk all the way through, and then working backwards. Maximizing variance should be constrained towards the occasional first round upset and regional matchups. The teams that make the final four are good teams, and in a season where there is no clear cut favorite, any team seeded 1 through 5 (and Washington obviously), would be given odds in the range of +4 to -4 against each other.
Below is a table of a simulation using only efficiency numbers, extracting the power 16 + Utah St.
| TEAMS | ROUND 2 | SWEET 16 | ELITE 8 | FINAL FOUR | FINAL | CHAMPION | PINNY |
| DUKE | 96.43% | 80.48% | 60.32% | 45.55% | 30.04% | 20.31% | 17.36% |
| OHIO ST | 94.93% | 74.77% | 56.21% | 42.87% | 25.38% | 16.98% | 16.53% |
| KANSAS | 93.70% | 67.29% | 51.41% | 37.21% | 26.99% | 16.00% | 16.03% |
| PITTSBURGH | 85.37% | 62.02% | 39.50% | 26.22% | 13.83% | 6.52% | 9.86% |
| PURDUE | 87.03% | 57.26% | 39.03% | 17.97% | 10.55% | 4.71% | 3.52% |
| SAN DIEGO ST | 86.37% | 60.48% | 41.40% | 18.60% | 8.04% | 4.18% | 4.92% |
| WASHINGTON | 72.16% | 44.65% | 27.62% | 11.30% | 5.94% | 3.02% | 2.15% |
| KENTUCKY | 82.08% | 52.52% | 20.91% | 12.17% | 4.85% | 2.39% | 5.45% |
| TEXAS | 71.95% | 47.57% | 18.91% | 10.84% | 4.32% | 2.32% | 4.89% |
| SYRACUSE | 83.20% | 52.85% | 27.60% | 10.11% | 4.64% | 2.00% | 4.30% |
| BYU | 72.75% | 43.92% | 25.22% | 11.91% | 5.10% | 1.83% | 1.82% |
| LOUISVILLE | 75.46% | 46.23% | 16.84% | 8.97% | 4.80% | 1.64% | 4.59% |
| WISCONSIN | 63.06% | 34.42% | 17.08% | 9.96% | 4.55% | 1.55% | 1.92% |
| UTAH ST | 60.86% | 32.75% | 16.28% | 9.69% | 3.92% | 1.40% | 1.15% |
| FLORIDA | 77.23% | 44.66% | 24.33% | 11.09% | 4.40% | 1.31% | 4.67% |
| NOTRE DAME | 77.96% | 47.85% | 21.76% | 8.00% | 3.67% | 1.28% | 4.92% |