While I am a degenerate, though painfully sharp gambler, I can recognize a great story. For the Men of Troy, they are on the midst of what could be a disheartening, galvanizing, and memorable season.
After a self-imposed post-season ban for the scandal involving OJ Mayo, USC looked hopeless in losing its first two games to conference rivals. With nothing to reach for at season’s end, and the vigorous excitement stimulated by the hope for some great achievement wiped away by past institutional sins, the players would almost be expected to lethargically whisper through the rest of season.
But the team rallied around blighted hopes, and drew inspiration from nothing, and went into Pauly Pavilion and handed UCLA its worst in over 60 years. The purity of sport manifested in a group of players who must submit to circumstances beyond their control, playing for the sake of pride.
Maybe its the proximity to fame and fortune, or the under-spoken quality of personal aspirations for college basketball players. Or maybe this team is just a damn good collection of talent. Before the sanctions were imposed, USC reeled off eight straight wins.
Four wins against teams in the Kenpom top 50, two on a neutral site. I barely hesitate to assert their prominence against any team in the country during an eight game span.
From the outside, their is an ominous cloud over the program; directionless, dismayed, and convened into irrelevance. However, the Trojans betray a capacity for self-confidence that can only be realized in times of misery. An appalling defiance for expectation. “Every game is the championship”, and “This is our Pac10 season” are words that stir the air from the optimistic depths of the USC locker-room. The coaches and players are alighted in an absolutely mutual understanding of serene disillusion, arising out of the want for dreams when there are none.
The Trojans are a damn good team, and Vegas thinks so too.
USC’s next opponent is a home contest with Washington State. The line is currently Southern Cal -8. A pretty consequential number for which to negotiate versus a solid conference rival. Washington State is a very respectable 13-5, though their schedule is lacking in quality wins. Two consecutive encouraging home efforts, one a five point loss in a well-played game versus conference favorite Cal, and a 77-73 win over Stanford. Unlike the Trojans, Washington State has reasonable, albeit slim, aspirations for a tourney appearance. They have a basis for which to draw inspiration, something tangible is within their sites.
Yet Vegas is hoping the sheep buy into the callous and devastating situation that is the Trojans season, and side with the very inviting number given to Washington State.
Using some of the few barometers we have at our immediate disposal to measure public consensus, the early perception appears to be split (rarely does an early consensus for an otherwise ancillary Pac-10 match-up change drastically over night). This is a very good thing. We have seen the last two nights, a split consensus on a size-able home favorite can be a good indicator to bet the home team.
(I have observed this trend over the years, without actually keeping of record of how significant this circumstance happens to be. But think it reasonable to make an educated guess on the matter, and say its a sound filter to add to a multitude of filters I have accumulated through the course of my experience)
Official pick coming tomorrow once I gauge the line. It would be against my better judgment to make a wager during an overly-excited, anti-connotionally filled ejaculation.
I urge you to beware, though. The last time I overburdened the screen with supposition by means of lofty composition, it ended in epic failure.
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