Pinnacle Sportsbook is considered by many to be the sharpest offshore book in the business. They are known for shading the lines for their customers, depending on which side you are typically inclined to bet (road/home, fav/underdog). They also have some of the higher limits in the industry, and their 5 cent ‘vig’ (-105) is very inviting to big-time bettors. Its common to look to Pinnacle for the opening line, for they are one of the first to release a ticket.
A line often moves two or more points when, obviously, a lot of money is on one side. Sometimes syndicates try to manipulate a line in order to establish a middle situation, where they can bet and try to win both sides. I’ve made a table showing the result of any game in which the line moved two points or more either way from Pinnacle. Using where the line opens and closes. Maybe I can isolate a pattern. At length, everything is basically 50/50, but maybe in certain conferences or situations I can find an advantage.
To simplify the complex, the table is every college basketball line that moved two points, regardless of injury factor, juice, or other possible stipulations. This is just a base analysis of line movement. Screw the NBA, its a different animal.
Looking at the table, if you followed the line movement, and you bet the closing number, your record was 5-3-1. Two games fell right in the middle, BYU / SDSU and Tenn State / Tenn Tech. With SDSU, Wright State and Tennessee State, had you gotten a better line, for instance the opener, and not the close, you would have won all three, making your record 8-1.
To satisfy my own curiosity, I might start following this, maybe make another page devoted to following Pinny two point moves. On any given weekday there won’t be more than three to track so it shouldn’t take much time.