The Overround

ACC bracket can be found here. Using the exact same model laid out in the Big East Tournament breakdown, I’ve created a chalk stipulation, predicting the odds and lines if the favorite advanced in each round.  Here is how the tournament plays out using efficiency ratings:

And the accompanying odds with offshore comparison:

I’ll apply opinionated epistolatory efforts at length. For now I am exercising the intermittent posting style to accommodate my work schedule.

Here are the results of the tournament purely by using the team’s average conference spread appropriated throughout the season:

And the odds that materialized from the aforementioned formulation:

Comparing the two modeled brackets, its easier to discern some marked differences in performance versus the vegas number. Here is the table to satisfy your curiosity on how the season played out. Maryland played well above general expectation, exemplified by an outstanding against the spread record of 13-3. While the Tarheels operate on the other extreme to a substantial degree.  Their disappointing season, betrayed by a 5-11 against the spread mark at conference season’s end, was emblazoned by a crippling effort @ Cameron Indoor.  Though the average against the spread aggregated bracket approaches a possible element of hidden value in the Tarheels compared to offshore numbers, their rich tradition, history, and recent championship accounts for inflated lines during conference play, which wears any semblance of value to its core.

Duke has just been so dominant and impressive, from expectation and to a lesser extent performance (though still remarkable), value in this tournament is virtually nonexistent.

Related posts:

1. A10 Tournament EFF and Spread Odds
2. Big East Tournament Odds and Breakdown
3. MVC Tournament Odds vs My Odds
4. Using Efficiency and Spread to Predict Against the Spread Record
5. Conference Efficiency Margin to Vegas Precision