The Overround

CBS Bracket here.

Bracket Project has four Big 10 teams in, with the lowest seed in conference at a 5 (Michigan State).  Illinois has a slim chance, heading outwards on that now proverbial S-curve, a solid showing in the Big 10 tournament may secure their position.  Here is how the chalk stipulation plays out.

First, using the average  spread appropriate throughout the conference season:

The odds and some comparisons if such were played out:

Hummel’s injury obviously skews any perceived value here. Other than Purdue’s chances dropping slightly due to injury, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State appear to be regarded as generally equal in ability and talent. IMO, Evan Turner gives Ohio State the edge in the conference, which is pretty obvious based on my pecuniary tendencies of late.

The linesmakers have been fixated on the expectation they have set forth for the Golden Gophers. Minnesota has induced an average spread of -3.75 during conference play, considerably higher than Illinois, and approaching Wisconsin. Their performance has been underwhelming, betrayed by an 7-11 ATS record in conference. However, only 1.85 points separates their average spread and efficiency differential. Still a mediocre team, with a veneer of adequacy.

Here is efficiency performance tournament bracket:

And the chances of winning:

Related posts:

1. SEC Tournament Breakdown
2. PAC10 Tournament Breakdown
3. ACC Tournament Efficiency and Spread Odds
4. CUSA Tournament Odds Comparison
5. Big 12 Tourney Efficiency and Average Spread Odds