For those not already familiar with the crop of thoroughbreds in this year’s Derby field, the #18 is Backtalk, currently a 50/1 shot. The general consensus being there is no clear cut favorite this year, and the lineup is relatively weak compared to previous runs. So I figured if a long shot was ever the way to go, this would be the year (or last year was the year, eventual winner Mine that Bird was also 50/1)
Backtalk happens to be a direct descendant of Smarty Jones, the most considerably notable sire from a survey of each entrant’s pedigree. I should say notable from an immediate lineage standpoint, and thinking in such way has an element of squareness attached, therefore probably destined to lose. I’ll rephrase and say Backtalk’s sire is of the most acutely physical configurations disposed to a heightened ability to compete. Perhaps some fate will play a part here as well, bred by the devastating tragedy, in more ways than one, beset to Smarty Jones.
Almost a uniformly distributed truth denominating all the horses in the field is if you go far enough back in the pedigree, War Admiral, Hardtack, Man O’ War, or some other legendary figure of racing lure makes an appearance. Hence their current status meriting a position in the Kentucky Derby.
The trifecta box I threw in there is basically an amalgamation of educated guessing with intuition. The #4 has the recognizable Calvin Borell riding the saddle, the #11 Devil May Care is the only filly in the group (and opened at a very sharp 10/1), other than that I formulated an opinion based on the aforementioned instinct factor, immediate lineage, and a brief probability observation concerning their most recent runs, visually transforming the past performances into an imaginary graph and seeing which one best fits the elements of a sin wave. Horses are a part of nature, and nature has a habit of burrowing itself into the universal foundation of regression to the mean.
In that respect the #17, #16, #10, and #9 have adequacy of momentum on their side. I only placed bets on the ones seen in the twitter post, the ones I pointed out but didn’t play will probably hit the superfecta. Because that’s the kind of cruel irony that typically happens.
The main object of interest for me is obviously Backtalk, at a 50/1 I feel like I’ve adopted my own personal nickelback.
Here is a very encouraging and promising writeup on Backtalk from July 30, 2009 following a victory in the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.
Backtalk - KentuckyDerby.com
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