The title of the post is inappropriately complex relevant to its implications. Basically revisiting the question presented here:
It would be interesting if over the short term tracking a handicapper’s record was (is?) more likely to be asymmetric rather than a normal distribution
The method of finding the answer was presented in the post, just lost my presence of mind, until now.
Assuming both sides have an equal probability of winning, here are the corresponding chances of performance over a ten game sample.
1-9, 9-1: 0.9%
2-8 , 8-2: 4.4%
3-7, 7-3: 11.7%
4-6, 6-4: 20.5%
5-5: 24.6%
Summing all the 1-9 to 3-7 streaks (9-1, 7-3) and there is a 34.2% probability of going on a ‘assymetric’ streak. Assymetric here is relative to the expectation of going anywhere from 4-6, 6-4.
**Edit: Forgot to add the probability mass calculation of going either 0-10 and 10-0, which would not have the much of an impact on the final subtotals of each performance scenario, but nonetheless is statistically significant based on the fact that its within the score of probability.
10-0, 0-10: .097%
And the total chance of undergoing an assymetric performance rises slightly to roughly 34.4%
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