Refining NL and AL MVP Odds |

Refining NL and AL MVP Odds

My previous efforts demanded much attention. I made a careless mistake with WAR, and neglected to project for the remainder of the season. It does alter the position of the candidates slightly. The distribution of odds was an amateur effort on my part as well, and I have since refined the process. Now the table is far more agreeable.

Additionally, I decided to add more arbitrary measures to regressing batting average. I regressed all the candidates to .285 over 400 ABs, then for reasons unfounded, I regressed that number to the their per year average rate (AB and AVG).

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This entry was posted on August 17, 2010, 7:23 am and is filed under Featurific, Futures, MLB, MVP. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

NAME	Team	WAR	TWX	G	HR	RBI	AVG	R	SB	PROB	ODDS
Albert Pujols	STL	6.34	101	161	41	120	0.313	110	15	35%	1.8/1
Joey Votto	CIN	6.23	101	151	39	109	0.307	114	12	30%	2.3/1
Adrian Gonzalez	SDP	7.04	106	159	31	104	0.290	93	0	20%	3.8/1
Matt Holliday	STL	5.49	101	158	30	103	0.305	97	10	20%	4/1
Carlos Gonzalez	COL	4.61	84	145	35	109	0.300	109	25	16%	5.2/1
Aubrey Huff	SFG	6.86	102	158	27	93	0.288	104	7	15%	5.8/1
Ryan Howard	PHI	2.79	100	145	32	113	0.286	91	1	13%	6.5/1
Brian McCann	ATL	5.17	103	141	24	87	0.282	66	7	8%	11.7/1
Scott Rolen	CIN	4.57	101	132	25	90	0.288	71	1	7%	12.5/1
Adam Dunn	WSN	4.43	80	161	43	108	0.268	93	0	7%	12.6/1
Jayson Werth	PHI	5.31	100	158	22	84	0.287	99	11	7%	13.4/1
Dan Uggla	FLA	4.23	80	162	38	104	0.275	114	4	5%	17.7/1
Ryan Zimmerman	WSN	6.23	80	150	32	93	0.291	94	4	5%	19.1/1
Colby Rasmus	STL	3.52	101	151	27	76	0.272	92	14	4%	23.5/1
David Wright	NYM	4.19	81	158	24	108	0.294	82	22	3%	28.2/1
Andres Torres	SFG	5.22	102	147	15	65	0.284	91	32	3%	38.4/1
Martin Prado	ATL	3.35	103	141	18	60	0.303	105	6	1%	109.5/1
Shane Victorino	PHI	2.09	100	142	21	74	0.271	84	29	0%	1395.7/1

NAME	Team	WAR	twx	G	HR	RBI	AVG	R	Pred Points	PROB	ODDS
Josh Hamilton	TEX	7.18	103	156	37	113	0.321	113	177	23%	3.3/1
Robinson Cano	NYY	7.82	111	161	29	102	0.307	108	155	20%	4/1
Miguel Cabrera	DET	6.84	78	158	36	131	0.313	108	120	15%	5.4/1
Mark Teixeira	NYY	5.03	111	159	36	120	0.277	120	118	15%	5.5/1
Adrian Beltre	BOS	6.59	102	157	30	110	0.295	85	99	13%	6.8/1
Evan Longoria	TBR	7.26	108	161	21	101	0.283	103	87	11%	7.8/1
Alex Rodriguez	NYY	3.77	111	152	29	135	0.287	81	85	11%	8/1
Nick Swisher	NYY	5.31	111	154	31	94	0.277	98	77	10%	9/1
Kevin Youkilis	BOS	5.77	102	140	26	85	0.295	106	77	10%	9/1
Justin Morneau	MIN	7.34	102	112	25	78	0.301	73	77	10%	9.1/1
Jose Bautista	TOR	5.17	85	161	50	123	0.263	108	74	10%	9.4/1
Paul Konerko	CHW	5.12	90	152	39	108	0.288	90	70	9%	10/1
Vladimir Guerrero	TEX	1.97	103	154	30	123	0.302	93	70	9%	10.1/1
Joe Mauer	MIN	6.09	102	141	10	87	0.313	93	62	8%	11.4/1
Mike Young	TEX	3.38	103	161	25	93	0.292	111	55	7%	13/1
Carl Crawford	TBR	4.33	108	154	17	82	0.292	112	50	6%	14.6/1
David Ortiz	BOS	3.16	102	143	36	106	0.276	86	44	6%	16.4/1
Derek Jeter	NYY	1.82	111	159	13	73	0.295	117	19	2%	39.3/1
Nelson Cruz	TEX	3.94	103	108	23	90	0.292	52	15	2%	49.9/1
Delmon Young	MIN	0.83	102	152	19	116	0.299	76	13	2%	58.1/1
Dustin Pedroia	BOS	5.08	102	100	16	56	0.295	71	6	1%	131.9/1
Alexis Rios	CHW	3.18	90	154	24	91	0.286	91	1	0%	753.5/1

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