The framework for the playoff simulator was described here, with an explanation of the pitching weights used. Here they are:
Again based on a mixture of personal preference with an adequate amount of research and evidence to support, over the course of the year this particular distribution of pitching weights produced a sufficient resemblance to the actual line, working concomitantly with Extrapolated Runs.
Texas vs Tampa Bay
The pitching rotations for games 1-3 have been set. Games 4 and 5 are obviously contingent on the situation each team faces, though both have listed game 4 starters for now, with game 5 yet to be determine.
|Game 1||David Price||Cliff Lee|
|Game 2||James Shields||CJ Wilson|
|Game 3||Matt Garza||Colby Lewis|
|Game 4||Wade Davis*||Tommy Hunter*|
Cliff Lee and possible Cy Young winner David Price pose an intriguing matchup in game 1, with gorgeous watch-ability. Cliff Lee’s K/BB ratio has been heavily documented and commented on, to mythical proportions this season, yet recently he has seen the inevitable “regression to the mean” take effect. Tampa Bay’s David Price relies heavily on strikeouts, which should be plentiful against the free swinging Rangers. A conspicuous paradox arises from prodigious feats of striking batters out—-high pitch counts. Texas has a swing rate (patience) in the bottom third of the league, as well as in the bottom half of the league in walks taken, and this may combat the paradox. Price’s teammate, James Shields, actually averages more K/9 than Price, and has been even more economical with his pitch counts (102 vs Price’s 108). Whether this breeds an advantage for the Rays obviously remains to be seen, and is largely conditioned by the performance of the bullpen (which I contend is more random than a consistent and predictable display of pitcher acuity). Pinnacle’s current price for game 1 has designated the Rays as a comfortable favorite of -128.
Below is an aggregation of my lines for games 1-5, alongside a comparison of the Pinnacle future price to my future price for the respective team’s ALDS odds. (Contrary to my stated beliefs above my lines are bullpen and defense adjusted, using the prescribed weights and xRuns)
|Game 1||Game 2
|Game 3||Game 4
*HFA = 4.2%
The Rangers appear to have consequential value here, despite the Rays having the advantage of three home games. The fact that they are favored is not exactly stunning, given the data that is used, though what is stunning is the performance from the Rangers pitching staff, particular the 2-3-4.