Basics explained here.
Pinnacle Game 1: Yankees -139, Rangers 131
|Game 1||CC Sabathia||CJ Wilson|
|Game 2||Phil Hughes||Colby Lewis|
|Game 3||Andy Pettitte||Cliff Lee|
|Game 4||AJ Burnett*||Tommy Hunter*|
|Game 5||CC Sabathia*||CJ Wilson*|
|Game 6||Phil Hughes*||Colby Lewis*|
|Game 7||Andy Pettitte*||Cliff Lee*|
My corresponding odds below:
|AL||GAME 1||GAME 2||GAME 3||GAME 4||GAME 5||GAME 6||GAME 7|
ALCS Odds (final odds are not symmetrical because the respective home/road win probabilities are contingent on the pitching matchup rather than a fixed winning percentage).
Pinnacle has Yankees at a no-vig 61.72% probability to win the series. Certainly the market always leans towards the Yankees due to public perception, so even compared to my odds of Yankees winning at 55.75%, there is not much value. Two of the seven games in the series the Yankees are expected to be fairly comfortable favorites, compared to one for the Rangers. Cliff Lee only starting two games here instead of three is ultimately the deciding factor. Not much one can say to combat a 6-0 1.44 ERA career in the post-season. It may turn out that the Rays fighting back and winning two in Arlington determined the ALCS winner.