The winner of these bracket contests usually, at least in retrospect, finds a solid equilibrium between maximizing variance and taking higher seeds. Typically a stable strategy involves, to a first approximation, picking chalk all the way through, and then working backwards. Maximizing variance should be constrained towards the occasional first round upset and regional matchups. The teams that make the final four are good teams, and in a season where there is no clear cut favorite, any team seeded 1 through 5 (and Washington obviously), would be given odds in the range of +4 to -4 against each other.
Below is a table of a simulation using only efficiency numbers, extracting the power 16 + Utah St.
| TEAMS | ROUND 2 | SWEET 16 | ELITE 8 | FINAL FOUR | FINAL | CHAMPION | PINNY |
| DUKE | 96.43% | 80.48% | 60.32% | 45.55% | 30.04% | 20.31% | 17.36% |
| OHIO ST | 94.93% | 74.77% | 56.21% | 42.87% | 25.38% | 16.98% | 16.53% |
| KANSAS | 93.70% | 67.29% | 51.41% | 37.21% | 26.99% | 16.00% | 16.03% |
| PITTSBURGH | 85.37% | 62.02% | 39.50% | 26.22% | 13.83% | 6.52% | 9.86% |
| PURDUE | 87.03% | 57.26% | 39.03% | 17.97% | 10.55% | 4.71% | 3.52% |
| SAN DIEGO ST | 86.37% | 60.48% | 41.40% | 18.60% | 8.04% | 4.18% | 4.92% |
| WASHINGTON | 72.16% | 44.65% | 27.62% | 11.30% | 5.94% | 3.02% | 2.15% |
| KENTUCKY | 82.08% | 52.52% | 20.91% | 12.17% | 4.85% | 2.39% | 5.45% |
| TEXAS | 71.95% | 47.57% | 18.91% | 10.84% | 4.32% | 2.32% | 4.89% |
| SYRACUSE | 83.20% | 52.85% | 27.60% | 10.11% | 4.64% | 2.00% | 4.30% |
| BYU | 72.75% | 43.92% | 25.22% | 11.91% | 5.10% | 1.83% | 1.82% |
| LOUISVILLE | 75.46% | 46.23% | 16.84% | 8.97% | 4.80% | 1.64% | 4.59% |
| WISCONSIN | 63.06% | 34.42% | 17.08% | 9.96% | 4.55% | 1.55% | 1.92% |
| UTAH ST | 60.86% | 32.75% | 16.28% | 9.69% | 3.92% | 1.40% | 1.15% |
| FLORIDA | 77.23% | 44.66% | 24.33% | 11.09% | 4.40% | 1.31% | 4.67% |
| NOTRE DAME | 77.96% | 47.85% | 21.76% | 8.00% | 3.67% | 1.28% | 4.92% |
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