Whether or not playing the market can last for any appreciable amount of time is up for debate. There are many that claim their betting methodology centers around blind market plays. What does that entail? Well first it requires one to have less confidence in having actual knowledge of the sport and more in letting others do the work. As well one should know the market for the respective sport. Whatever that means. Most just assume Pinnacle sets the market, with an often placid interest of the goings on at other sportsbooks. Being a rather placid individual adorned with placid habilimentry, speaking to a placid audience, and fortunate enough to be typing on a placid-looking computer all to better sustain the necessary amount of placidness that is called for to be a placid degenerate, I am perfectly equipped to make wagers with zero knowledge of events I am wagering on.
Eventually this post will demonstrate an extremely simplified version of how to just blindly bet the market, using the Home Run Derby tonight as an example. Step one, assume Pinnacle sets the market price, which consists of the opener, the closer, and everything in between.
Next, calculate the fair-value percentages. Add up the implied probabilities and divide by the total overround.
| NAME | ML | W% |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 828 | 10.77% |
| David Ortiz | 534 | 15.78% |
| Jose Bautista | 356 | 21.91% |
| Matt Holliday | 562 | 15.10% |
| Matt Kemp | 1089 | 8.41% |
| Prince Fielder | 558 | 15.19% |
| Rickie Weeks | 1624 | 5.80% |
| Robinson Cano | 1320 | 7.04% |
Pick another sportsbook, preferably one which currently holds a chunk of your hard earned cash from more biblical endeavors. I’ll use BetJamaica.
And the fair-value odds.
| NAME | ML | W% |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 832 | 10.73% |
| David Ortiz | 511 | 16.37% |
| Jose Bautista | 440 | 18.52% |
| Matt Holliday | 511 | 16.37% |
| Matt Kemp | 864 | 10.37% |
| Prince Fielder | 511 | 16.37% |
| Rickie Weeks | 1443 | 6.48% |
| Robinson Cano | 1121 | 8.19% |
I’ve designated pinnacle as the market line, so let’s compare the two through subtraction.
| NAME | PINNACLE | BETJM | DIFF |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 10.77% | 10.73% | 0.04% |
| David Ortiz | 15.78% | 16.37% | -0.60% |
| Jose Bautista | 21.91% | 18.52% | 3.39% |
| Matt Holliday | 15.10% | 16.37% | -1.27% |
| Matt Kemp | 8.41% | 10.37% | -1.96% |
| Prince Fielder | 15.19% | 16.37% | -1.18% |
| Rickie Weeks | 5.80% | 6.48% | -0.68% |
| Robinson Cano | 7.04% | 8.19% | -1.14% |
Hopefully this little example is not too much of an insult to market players. One’s ultimate goal in life is to reach a desirable end with little to no exertion, and for the immediate future my ultimate goal is contingent upon the performance of Jose Bautista and Adrian Gonzalez in tonight’s HR Derby. Half unit on each.
