Last year’s predictor formula did a solid job in not only predicting the eventual winners in both leagues (Votto and Hamilton) but the order in which they finished. Thus I didn’t feel it was necessary to update the formula to include stats from 2010. The predictor uses numbers from 2000-2009 to regress certain statistics onto voting points. I also make adjustments for projecting stats to year-end numbers using a very crude and simple application of each player’s career statistics. In other words, I assume cumulative statistics are representative of a player’s overall ability. I made one further adjustment and regressed all batting averages to a .285 hitter. This may throw Bautista’s numbers askew, as obviously he’s not the same player he use to be. But at the same time sustaining a 1.150 OPS for the rest of the year is a prodigious feat of hitting, certainly compared to league averages this year.
Many may be a little dumbfounded by the last row in the AL column. Never underestimate the power of a walk.