The Overround

The season is only 10 weeks away, and some very intriguing matchups kick-off in early September:  Oregon @ Boise State, BYU vs Oklahoma, Virginia Tech vs Alabama, Charleston Southern @ Florida, Georgia @ Oklahoma State, USC @ Ohio State.  The end of the NBA finals is often followed by College Football preseason polls emanating throughout the internets.  Here is our preseason top 10, using a very simple formula.  The formula includes last year’s finish, QB situation, returning starters, and schedule.

1.  Florida – The defending champs return all 11 players from a stellar defense, and of course Tim Tebow.  Their schedule is nice and soft.  2 possible hiccups are at overrated LSU, who has no set QB, and of course the rivalry with UGA in Jacksonville, who also have an undecided QB situation.  Getting upset once is possible.  However, even with losing 1 game on the year, a 12-1 UF team will undoubtedly be voted into the National Championship game.

2.  Oklahoma – Last year’s runner-up to Florida are primed for a possible rematch with the Gators.  An explosive offense led by Sam Bradford, coupled with 9 returning starters on defense (albeit an underwhelming defense) could be the right combination for a return trip to the BCS Final.  Their schedule is  very formidable.  A tough nonconference game vs BYU, led by senior QB Max Hall, and another road game vs big-name-yet-mediocre-Miami, provides a challenge before they enter conference play.  Of course the Texas game is always a conspicuous matchup, and a road game versus an improved Nebraska team create a few nail-biting weeks on the calendar for Sooner fans to endure.

3.  Texas – A lethargic and unimpressive win vs Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl has some people soured on the Longhorns chances to reach the BCS Championship this year.  But Colt McCoy and WR Jordan Shipley form one of the better pass-catching duos in the country.  Along with lighting up the scoreboard, Texas returns defensive dynamo Sergio Kindle, a premiere pass-rusher, DE/OLB hybrid.  A la USC, Texas reloads year after year with talent, so filling holes in the secondary and at RB is not cause for concern.  They will have plenty of opportunities to break in any new players, their nonconference schedule is UL Monroe, at Wyoming, UCF and UTEP.  More of a preseason feel than an actual schedule. Despite winning the Red River Rivalry last year, a plethora of labyrinth technicalities left them bewildered, short of a shot at the National Championship. If they can get pass the Oklahoma game, another tough matchup @ Oklahoma State looms, but they should be favorites in at least 11 of the 12 games they play in 2009-2010.

4.  USC – Having USC any lower than 5 would be an act of foolishness, and probably hatred and jealousy.  7 straight 11 win seasons for Pete Carroll, and last year had another season to add to their growing tradition.  Their only loss was to 10-4 Oregon State, a team that few realize has been one of the more consistent and successful over the last 5 years.  Despite that loss, USC had a very strong case to play for the BCS Title, maybe having the most impressive nonconference victory of all the teams in the hunt, a 35-3 humiliation of Ohio State.  They would eventually cruise past the befuddled Nittany Lions in the Rose Bowl.  This year, losing a superstar QB, and virtually the entire defense, many think this may be the season where USC’s unstoppable machine becomes somewhat rusty.  The nonconference schedule, as usual, offers a sufficient balance of competition and comfort to prepare them for the conference showdowns between Oregon and improved California.  USC has a rematch with Ohio State, this time at the Horseshoe, a team desperate for a big win, and another signature matchup @ ND.   Irregardless, history tells us USC will be in the conversation come November.  Pete Carroll and the Trojans don’t just reload, they use a cavalcade of resources and a never-ending stream of new and improved athletes that allow them to come back stronger and more determined every year they don’t win a title. Anything short of a National Championship is somewhat of a dubious triumph for USC.  Winning BCS games has become perfunctory in its glory.  Expect 10 wins at the minimum.

5.  Virginia Tech – .   The Hokies are coming off an Orange Bowl win and another ACC title.  The defense is always solid, reliable.  The QB, Tyrod Taylor, may be the most talented since some guy who wore #7 10 years ago.  And this year Taylor doesn’t have to look over his shoulder (QB Sean Glennon).  They return all skill position players on offense, as well as 4 starters on the OL.    The timing is perfect, the ACC rarely dazzles with on-field performance, Miami FL and FSU have been stuck in a shell of invariable controversy, mediocrity, and arrogance for the last 5 years.  The early season game @ Alabama will be a perfect opportunity for the Hokies to validate the preseason excitement.  It’s also a perfect time to be playing Alabama.  The Tide will be breaking in a new QB, and historically, Bud Foster and the Hokie defense annihilate and embarrass talent untested under center.  The home game vs Nebraska should be a victory, last year VT went into Nebraska and dominated for 55 minutes, before finally withstanding a late rally by the Huskers.  The Hokies can only hope they don’t fall victim to their own hype, as they have done before.

6.  Oregon – Why do we have Oregon this high?  Well just ask Oklahoma State.  Last year’s finish to the season was a clinic of offensive acuity unmatched, and also a sign of things to come for the Ducks.  Head coach Mike Belotti is replaced by offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, so the system remains in tact.  The players can only get better.  An early season battle @ Boise State could present a defining outlook on the rest of the season.   But the Ducks, with 8 returning starters on offense, may have too much for the Broncos to handle, and will have added motivation due to last year’s home loss to Boise State.  Home games with Utah and California shape up their September schedule.  Utah, having lost some key players from last year’s perfect squad, will not be taken lightly, and California has the talent on offense to compete with anybody.  Obviously the USC game is forever forthcoming, but this year it’s in Autzen.  We may regret this pick come October, Oregon has glaring holes on defense, and we’ve thrown caution to the wind.  Except it’s not just wind, it’s a hurricane, and the Ducks have to hold water.  Health has typically deterred this team from greatness, maybe this is the year Oregon is destined for a Pac 10 title.

7.  Ohio State – This team has faced an exhausting amount of scrutiny the last few years.  Failing to beat or even compete with elite level talent (Florida, LSU, USC, Texas) has given reason to criticism.  But 10 wins a year is imminent due what we like to call “Big 10 deficiency.”  Penn State has proved formidable of late, but the mediocrity of the other 9 teams in the conference is mind-numbing.  OSU’s QB, Terrelle Pryor, is oozing with raw athletic ability and talent, and the defense is always among the nation’s best.  Ohio State may finally be in position to quiet the skeptics with a big win over a young Southern Cal at home on Sept 12.

8.  Penn State – This year, the lower half of the top 10 could have about 14-15 teams in the discussion.  Many teams are enigmas, either breaking in new QBs, new coaches, or might be one-year-wonders (Ole Miss?).  Penn State, however, has a solidified QB, a good defense, and an unyielding schedule that includes;  Akron, Syarcuse and Temple.  What a gauntlet!  The Spartan warriors at Thermopalye had an easier path to glory.  Not really.

9.  Boise State – Again, draw a name out of a hat.  Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, UGA, California, among others.  7-25 this year are on a road to Purgatory.  They won’t reach the BCS Championship.  For some of these teams, nothing else matters.  But for teams like Boise State, being undefeated does not arouse the BCS formula.  See Utah 2008-2009.  Last year, Boise State was unable to put the finishing touches on an undefeated regular season, losing to the more talented and very dangerous TCU Horned Frogs.  Returning five starters from a defense ranked among the nation’s best in a variety of categories, and super soph Kellen Moore at QB, the Broncos have enough playmakers and depth to match last year’s regular season performance.  The home game vs Oregon in September provides much needed weight to an otherwise soft schedule.  They may face tough games @ Fresno and @ Tulsa, but the Broncos are still prohibitive favorites to win the WAC.  Losing only one game could still place this team in the top 10 come season’s end.

10.  Alabama – This is almost by default.  We aren’t buying into Alabama, or much of the SEC this year because there are so many questions at QB around the conference.  Last year the SEC hit the jackpot with senior QBs, or otherwise talented enough to make the early leap to the pros.  Having said that, Alabama returns nine starters from a stout and at times inpenetrable defense.  Losing a senior QB and an All-American OL is an injection of realism into the veins of Bama nation.   Well, maybe not, we are talking about Alabama.  The probation that has been put on the Tide has no affect on the upcoming season, in reality it has no affect period.  Vacating wins isn’t going to compromise the future.  Saban’s team has built the foundation for huge success, but they are an All-American QB short of being a perennial top 5 team.  Believe it or not, their conference schedule is a cake walk.  The showdown with Virginia Tech is their toughest match of the season.  Win or lose, a top 10 finish is more than likely

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