Posts Tagged Big 10
Houston coming through with the unexpected CUSA title after beating UTEP was a gorgeous state of affairs, combating my latest tendency for profit dwindling wagers. One big future play turned a terrible month into a serviceable one. That play owes much to my efforts in breaking down the CUSA tournament.
A quick survey of the games on schedule tomorrow, and Minnesota +4 immediately stands out, as my chalk stipulation had them at a better chance to win the BIG TEN tournament compared to offshore numbers. It appears to be a favorable situation for the Golden Gophers, the Buckeyes needed a heroic buzzer beater by All-American Evan Turner to sneak by Michigan, and then escaped with a hard fought, emotional 2OT victory versus Illinois. All the while Minnesota was out-willing Michigan State and demoralizing the sans Hummel Purdue Boilermakers. Minnesota should be a solid bet for tomorrow, but I think it peradventure to say I will make the wager based on regret, regret that I didn’t adhere to my own comprehensive analysis of Minnesota heading into the tournament, and missed out on the 20/1 odds appropriated by a variety of books. Could be seen as a forced wager, though seemingly a solid investment nonetheless.
Here are adjusted efficiency lines, and the lines based on conference spreads for each game:
|Georgia Tech||10.5||Georgia Tech||10.5|
|Mississippi St||8.5||Mississippi St||6|
|Ohio State||-5||Ohio State||-3|
Richmond has an advantage here, based on regular season performance and convened line. These numbers do not include tournament play. I give up on the A10 though, Dayton and Rhode Island have been the proverbial thorn in my degenerated side, inducing much head banging against wall to quell the pain of being imminently screwed. Just Minnesota for me.
CBS Bracket here.
Bracket Project has four Big 10 teams in, with the lowest seed in conference at a 5 (Michigan State). Illinois has a slim chance, heading outwards on that now proverbial S-curve, a solid showing in the Big 10 tournament may secure their position. Here is how the chalk stipulation plays out.
First, using the average spread appropriate throughout the conference season:
|BIG10 TOURNAMENT AVERAGE SPREAD|
|Round 1||Round 2||Round 3||Final|
|Team / Spread||ML||Team / Spread||ML||Team / Spread||ML||Team / Spread||ML|
|Iowa 10||434||Michigan 6.5||239|
|Ohio State -6.5||-293|
|Ohio State -2||-143|
|Wisconsin -5.5||-242||Wisconsin 2||117|
|Northwestern -7.5||-345||Ohio State 2||123|
|Indiana 7.5||282||Northwestern 11||485||Purdue -2||-150|
|Minnesota -9||-435||Purdue -2||-145|
|Penn State 9||356||Minnesota 3||140||Michigan State 2||119|
|Michigan St -3||-171|
The odds and some comparisons if such were played out:
|Big10 Average Spread Odds|
The previous post demonstrated how to calculated the Pythagorean Formula, as well as the more regressional Normal Distribution calculation for predicting ATS records. The two games that were of focus were Dayton and Baylor. Dayton has an expected ATS record above what is actual, while Temple was over-performing its Pythagorean expectation. Regardless, Temple won and covered. But the discrepancies were very slight, not really conducive to a firm grasp on how the game plays out, since there are yet enough games on schedule for both teams’ expected ATS record to round into form.
Baylor, however, appeared to have a major advantage in both expectation being higher than their actual record, and the opposite being true for their opponent. Though Baylor, also failed to cover the 6.5 points, despite winning SU.
There were five games that met a criteria as being highly anomalous in calculating expectation versus actual. The formulas were discussed in the previous post, so I will just list the games (The numbers used for conference games to formulate a normal distribution expected W% have not been updated through February 23rd, but a prediction can still be made from that point forward to gauge the rest of the season. Pythagorean formulas are independent of overall conference play):
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Illinois students rushed the court following their upset of then #5 Michigan State. The emotional high that is induced by the relative faithful celebrating by way of on-court orgy strikes at the core of the inexorable nature of gravity. Once the next game starts, the ephemeral pedestal gets swiped away at the legs, and the team comes crashing down. I’ve been following this rather closely. The last five times a team endured this scenario, they failed to cover the next game. A very savory and welcoming trend, and I feel inclined to take advantage. Doesn’t hurt that the Illini have to navigate their way through the ineffable confines of the Kohl Center, where Wisconsin is 60-5 since the 2007 season. The Math Geeks are high on the Badgers as well.
Illinois +1.5 -110
Ranking disparity is severely out of proportion with the Vegas number. However, the Math Geeks would think it appropriate. For some reason, Kenpom has not become a widespread tool for the public to use. I dread the day when ESPN becomes affiliated with Kenpom. As information becomes more known, it makes it harder for bettors who are aware to take advantage. Until then, I will have to rely on the barometers that are available to gauge a false public opinion.
This game is probably do or die as well for the Illinois and their tourney hopes.
Illinois +1.5 -110
$55 / $50