Houston coming through with the unexpected CUSA title after beating UTEP was a gorgeous state of affairs, combating my latest tendency for profit dwindling wagers.  One big future play turned a terrible month into a serviceable one.   That play owes much to my efforts in breaking down the CUSA tournament.  

A quick survey of the games on schedule tomorrow, and Minnesota +4 immediately stands out, as my chalk stipulation had them at a better chance to win the BIG TEN tournament compared to offshore numbers. It appears to be a favorable situation for the Golden Gophers, the Buckeyes needed a heroic buzzer beater by All-American Evan Turner to sneak by Michigan, and then escaped with a hard fought, emotional 2OT victory versus Illinois.   All the while Minnesota was out-willing Michigan State and demoralizing the sans Hummel Purdue Boilermakers.   Minnesota should be a solid bet for tomorrow, but I think it peradventure to say I will make the wager based on regret, regret that I didn’t adhere to my own comprehensive analysis of Minnesota heading into the tournament, and missed out on the 20/1 odds appropriated by a variety of books.   Could be seen as a forced wager, though seemingly a solid investment nonetheless.

Here are adjusted efficiency lines, and the lines based on conference spreads for each game:

Richmond has an advantage here, based on regular season performance and convened line. These numbers do not include tournament play. I give up on the A10 though, Dayton and Rhode Island have been the proverbial thorn in my degenerated side, inducing much head banging against wall to quell the pain of being imminently screwed. Just Minnesota for me.