Posts Tagged fades
Same deal as before, just public numbers via screenshots from different sources (click to enlarge).
Public fades have fared pretty well this week. Both games today would merit public fade status, as well as point advantages from kenpom. The Duke game is interesting because of location and betting trends. Fans love to hate Duke, hence the public dog status held by Baylor warranted by the percentages. The oddsmakers denoted Baylor’s proximity to Houston compared to Duke’s to be worth a 1-1.5 points, which is reasonable enough. Though since the opener 4.5 the line has creeped up to 5. Kenpom has the spread at 6. Formulating all the aforementioned conditions into one sensible sentence, Duke is a #1 seed being heavily bet against by the public despite having the point advantage between the line and kenpom, with sharp money moving the line up a half point. Good luck Baylor bettors.
I would lean Duke, obviously, just based on the public numbers and the raw data, however I really don’t feel compelled to make a wager on this particular game in order to allow my future bets to take form.