Posts Tagged Finals
I’ve decided to purely use the line as a speculative tool for a series outcome. I arrived at the conclusion based on how the playoffs have played out thus far. Lakers and Boston both finished in the top 5 in both average home and road line, while Boston finished out of the top 5 at home using efficiency statistics. Though I should say their regular season and playoff performances on the road have been very impressive, accumulating a rating 2nd overall.
The Lakers meanwhile, even including the playoffs, finished barely in the top half of the western conference based on a road efficiency rating, yet were ranked 1st in average line. On average the teams with the highest overall line advanced further in the playoffs (Lakers 1st, Boston 3rd in their respective conferences).
Here are the line odds, Pythagorean and an expectation based on a linear forecast (numbers are aggregated exclusively from playoff lines):
We would expect the linear formulation to be conducive to regression, which is reasonable considering its a regression model. But the numbers clearly show the Lakers as being the conspicuous favorite, an obvious product that could be betrayed by way of sitting in chair in thought. Yet the goal is to find value, so to find value these numbers have to be compared to the market, and pinnacle sets the market. Here are Pinnacle odds to win:
To compare to Pinnacle, Sportsbetting currently is -170/+150, the best price I’ve found so far. So at its core, this is an optimal situation for which the +EV condition comes into affect. Outcomes for the most part in the NBA are unpredictable when two teams have sufficient depth of talent. We have seen with the Lakers, that homecourt advantage is a huge factor in determining the imminent series winner. And one could always summon the revenge factor stemming from the Celtics beating the Lakers in 2008 finals.
Bottom line though, the Lakers have had the higher lines, with some consequence, in comparison to Boston, despite playing in the what is considered to be tougher conference. Using just the playoff lines, the relative venue game lines are:
@ Lakers ~ -12
@ Boston ~ -4.5
Certainly its hard for me to believe the oddsmakers would set a double digit favorite for the Lakers at the Staples Center, regardless what the raw statistics suggest. The number will probably be within a range of @ Lakers -8 and @ Boston -4. In fact the Lakers game 1 is -6, again more value on the Lakers.
Personally from my view, since I’ve had some success in these playoffs to this point, and have been serviceable in the futures market (1-3 +1.5* or 14% ROI), I may consider laying the -180 on the Lakers, hopefully finding a better price, and let the series play out.
I’ll revisit later in the week once exacta odds are released.
Since these numbers do not include the playoffs, only the regular season, we might be reaching the point of an imminent sense of infantillism. I guess to a certain extent regular season data is still an adequate measure of a conference final scenario analysis. Some may deem these numbers as lacking credibility and precision, however. Which is a reasonable assumption. Maybe for the finals I’ll inject the playoff data into the scenarios, or perhaps exclusively using playoff data as the barometer for the various metrics is more than sufficient to derive a comparative analysis.
Anyway, here are the numbers for Boston and Orlando.
The magnitude of Line to Efficiency performance in regards to the Magic would appear to betray elements of inconsistency. You could even go as far as saying a marked disagreement between the two. Orlando has far exceeded their expectation, or whatever the equivalent of oddsmakers perception is, in regards to comparing the average line vs an accumulated efficiency performance. And I think without question the Magic have been the most impressive team in the playoffs in terms of performance.
The series price you can find anywhere between -260 and -300. No real apparent value based on what I have. I should say a brief survey of how the playoffs have materialized thus far shows efficiency statistics as having more weight in the Eastern Conference, and the average line being more relevant in the Western Conference.
Resorting to the proverbial armchair analysis and logic would induce a lean towards Orlando because of their recent playoff domination.
The home court lines in this series based on the two metrics (average line and average efficiency) are:
One word will be used to describe this series for the Magic. One word that is so incredulous, unmerciful, and all too common in sports. Choke. Whether justified or not, the Magic “choked” game 4 away, surrendering a 12 pt halftime lead and a 5 point cushion in the final minute of regulation to virtual stamp a Lakers Championship. Orlando missed an unforgettable 15 FTs, at home. Read the rest of this entry »
The final score conveniently fell right on the Vegas line. What’s important though is the Magic won the game. Why do we break down games? Magic shot 61%, Kobe went 5-10 from the FT line. Game over. Everything else is commentary.
Jay Mariotti thinks there is a “Dent in Kobe’s Armor.”
Other NBA News: