Posts Tagged Futures
AL/NL Cy Young
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Cy Young, MLB on July 22, 2012
Again, last post on this. I’ll attach necessary files at bottom.
Hit both pitchers last year. Kershaw was sharp, he won us money (be weary of “max payout” disclaimers on Cy Young futures emailed to you after the fact by some unspecified sportsbooks, though no worries we got paid in full).
AL and NL formulas:
And a different formula is required for NL relief pitchers:
bWAR is baseball-reference WAR projected to the end of the season.
AL CY YOUNG
| NAME | TEAM | bWAR | PROB | ODDS |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 8.70 | 47.30% | 111 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 7.76 | 46.00% | 117 |
| David Price | TBR | 5.80 | 43.85% | 128 |
| Matt Harrison | TEX | 7.14 | 31.07% | 222 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | 4.95 | 26.24% | 281 |
| Yu Darvis | TEX | 3.48 | 5.39% | 1755 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.62 | 0.14% | 70129 |
NL CY YOUNG
| NAME | TEAM | bWAR | PROB | ODDS |
| J. Cueto | CIN | 7.07 | 27.21% | 267 |
| C. Kimbrel | ATL | 3.1 | 25.96% | 285 |
| R. Dickey | NYM | 5.34 | 25.49% | 292 |
| S. Strasburg | WSN | 4.53 | 18.79% | 432 |
| W. Miley | ARI | 4.65 | 17.01% | 488 |
| G. Gonzalez | WSN | 4.01 | 17.00% | 488 |
| C. Hamels | PHI | 4.26 | 13.77% | 626 |
| L. Lynn | STL | 3.62 | 12.65% | 690 |
| M. Bumgarner | SFG | 2.76 | 12.56% | 696 |
| M. Cain | SFG | 3.79 | 10.33% | 868 |
| A. Chapman | CIN | 3.27 | 6.90% | 1350 |
| J. McDonald | PIT | 3.83 | 6.03% | 1559 |
| J. Zimmermann | WSN | 6.97 | 4.51% | 2119 |
| K. Jansen | LAD | 2.9 | 1.79% | 5493 |
NCAAB Conference Tourney’s: Pinny v KenPom
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in kenpom, NCAAB, Pinnacle on March 6, 2012
KenPom LOG5′s here
Top 5 Value:
Kansas
Indiana
Syracuse
Ohio State
SEC Field
| ACC Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| UNC | 53.52% | 52.20% | -0.0132 |
| Duke | 21.30% | 19.80% | -0.0150 |
| FSU | 10.39% | 9.90% | -0.0049 |
| UVA | 6.65% | 10.40% | 0.0375 |
| NC State | 3.44% | 2.40% | -0.0104 |
| Miami | 2.48% | 3.70% | 0.0122 |
| Field | 2.22% | 1.60% | -0.0062 |
| PAC 12 Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| California | 30.29% | 32.30% | 0.0201 |
| Oregon | 15.94% | 12.20% | -0.0374 |
| UCLA | 14.82% | 14.90% | 0.0008 |
| Washington | 14.76% | 12.20% | -0.0256 |
| Arizona | 9.47% | 12.70% | 0.0323 |
| Stanford | 5.98% | 8.00% | 0.0202 |
| Colorado | 3.93% | 3.90% | -0.0003 |
| Oregon St. | 2.87% | 2.80% | -0.0007 |
| Field | 1.94% | 1.00% | -0.0094 |
| SEC Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Kentucky | 72.63% | 68.70% | -0.0393 |
| Field | 27.37% | 31.30% | 0.0393 |
| Big East Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Syracuse | 33.02% | 39.50% | 0.0648 |
| Marquette | 18.42% | 20.10% | 0.0168 |
| Georgetown | 13.81% | 15.10% | 0.0129 |
| Notre Dame | 7.21% | 7.90% | 0.0069 |
| Cincy | 6.94% | 5.60% | -0.0134 |
| Loserville | 6.94% | 5.50% | -0.0144 |
| USF | 3.53% | 1.50% | -0.0203 |
| WVU | 3.52% | 1.90% | -0.0162 |
| Uconn | 2.78% | 1.40% | -0.0138 |
| Seton Hall | 1.27% | 0.70% | -0.0057 |
| Pitt | 1.08% | 0.20% | -0.0088 |
| St. John’s | 0.37% | 0.08% | -0.0029 |
| Field | 1.10% | 0.52% | -0.0058 |
| Big Ten Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Ohio State | 32.29% | 37.20% | 0.0491 |
| Michigan St. | 23.34% | 27.20% | 0.0386 |
| Michigan | 15.96% | 5.10% | -0.1086 |
| Wisconsin | 10.48% | 10.40% | -0.0008 |
| Indiana | 9.74% | 16.50% | 0.0676 |
| Purdue | 3.73% | 2.50% | -0.0123 |
| Nwestern | 2.17% | 0.50% | -0.0167 |
| Illinois | 0.79% | 0.20% | -0.0059 |
| Field | 1.51% | 0.40% | -0.0111 |
| Big 12 Tourney | |||
| Team | Pinny | KP | KP-P |
| Kansas | 39.33% | 54.60% | 0.1527 |
| Missouri | 32.93% | 23.00% | -0.0993 |
| Baylor | 9.43% | 7.30% | -0.0213 |
| Kansas St. | 6.52% | 5.00% | -0.0152 |
| Iowa St | 5.97% | 4.50% | -0.0147 |
| Texas | 4.96% | 5.00% | 0.0004 |
| Oklahoma St | 0.57% | 0.40% | -0.0017 |
| Field | 0.29% | 0.20% | -0.0009 |
To win World Series and MVP
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, MLB on October 19, 2011
Pinnacle isn’t offering MVP props, so I used 5Dimes as the market setter. The book that takes the highest limits is on the left and used as the base to compare with other books. Similar to what I did before playoffs started, where the Rangers to win the ALCS prop had the best overall market value.
Doesn’t look like either side has any immediate value. Personally I like the Rangers but what do I know.
The players in bold appear to have over 1% market value. Conveniently they play for different teams in different capacities. If the Cardinals do win I find it hard to believe they out hit the Rangers, and conversely the Rangers are built around a tremendous lineup and a deep bullpen. A bet both on Carpenter and Hamilton brings together the winning attributes of their respective teams.
Sportsbetting is Sharp
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Pinnacle on May 1, 2011
Updated NL/AL MVP Predictor
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Featurific, MLB, MVP on August 26, 2010
Some slight changes in MVP position and predicted number points. The odds still have yet to be released offshore. Pujols has hit a devastating surge, he could win the triple crown. Still think Adrian Gonzalez has the best value in either league.
Keep in mind in both leagues, the players listed are all the players that registered in the predictor equation. Once some players are filtered from the equation the odds will drop. This is because my formula to create odds is simply the total number of predicted points divided by two. Logically, if you have over half the number of points one would be declared the winner
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