I partitioned the pool of MVP candidates into three categories: starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and hitters.  That way I can include everybody in the MVP process and isolate the appropriate combination of statistics and coefficients.  I’m just trying to resolve as much of the variance in voting points as possible, using numbers from 2000-2010.  For the NL Cy Young, initially I used FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) numbers rather than baseball-ref WAR (rWAR).  I’ve since decided against it and went back to rWAR.  The decision was arbitrary, I might as well have just flipped a coin.  The differences are adequately described at fangraphs.  If you are out of the loop, search the site for MVP or Cy Young.

AL MVP

Arod’s latest shenanigans and his history of admitted steroid use probably eliminates him from further consideration.  The same can be said for David Ortiz and the general stigma behind PEDs.

Jacoby Ellsbury has made headlines the last few nights with walk-off hits, both in relatively big games given the latest surge from the Yankees.  Other than a binary appropriation of game-winning hits or his clutch metrics, a flare for the dramatic is hard to quantify.  WPA (Win probability added) statistics may be valid here, however.  WPA is, essentially, the cumulative WPA for each batting result for a given player.  For example, given a win probability for the Red Sox at the time Ellsbury hits a HR or flies out, the change in win probability increases by x or decreases by y.    The aggregate sum of each plate appearance (or in the case of pitchers, each pitch) is then presented as a WPA stat.  Here is the same MVP table ordered by WPA:

Last year’s MVP, Josh Hamilton, was second third in the league with a WPA of 6.25.  Miguel Cabrera led the majors in 2010 WPA and finished 2nd in the MVP voting.  Perhaps I should include WPA into the pool of variables used for regression.  While voters probably don’t consciously consider WPA as a tool to assess player value, by definition it is a calculation of one’s contribution to their respective team’s overall success which can as well be approximated through reading recaps and watching highlights.

NL MVP Update tomorrow, will probably try to integrate WPA statistics.