Posts Tagged Lakers
I’ve decided to purely use the line as a speculative tool for a series outcome. I arrived at the conclusion based on how the playoffs have played out thus far. Lakers and Boston both finished in the top 5 in both average home and road line, while Boston finished out of the top 5 at home using efficiency statistics. Though I should say their regular season and playoff performances on the road have been very impressive, accumulating a rating 2nd overall.
The Lakers meanwhile, even including the playoffs, finished barely in the top half of the western conference based on a road efficiency rating, yet were ranked 1st in average line. On average the teams with the highest overall line advanced further in the playoffs (Lakers 1st, Boston 3rd in their respective conferences).
Here are the line odds, Pythagorean and an expectation based on a linear forecast (numbers are aggregated exclusively from playoff lines):
We would expect the linear formulation to be conducive to regression, which is reasonable considering its a regression model. But the numbers clearly show the Lakers as being the conspicuous favorite, an obvious product that could be betrayed by way of sitting in chair in thought. Yet the goal is to find value, so to find value these numbers have to be compared to the market, and pinnacle sets the market. Here are Pinnacle odds to win:
To compare to Pinnacle, Sportsbetting currently is -170/+150, the best price I’ve found so far. So at its core, this is an optimal situation for which the +EV condition comes into affect. Outcomes for the most part in the NBA are unpredictable when two teams have sufficient depth of talent. We have seen with the Lakers, that homecourt advantage is a huge factor in determining the imminent series winner. And one could always summon the revenge factor stemming from the Celtics beating the Lakers in 2008 finals.
Bottom line though, the Lakers have had the higher lines, with some consequence, in comparison to Boston, despite playing in the what is considered to be tougher conference. Using just the playoff lines, the relative venue game lines are:
@ Lakers ~ -12
@ Boston ~ -4.5
Certainly its hard for me to believe the oddsmakers would set a double digit favorite for the Lakers at the Staples Center, regardless what the raw statistics suggest. The number will probably be within a range of @ Lakers -8 and @ Boston -4. In fact the Lakers game 1 is -6, again more value on the Lakers.
Personally from my view, since I’ve had some success in these playoffs to this point, and have been serviceable in the futures market (1-3 +1.5* or 14% ROI), I may consider laying the -180 on the Lakers, hopefully finding a better price, and let the series play out.
I’ll revisit later in the week once exacta odds are released.
To continue with my meaningless overcomplicated statistical analysis of what is ultimately a random sequence of events, here are the odds to win the Lakers/Suns series using the different metrics explained here. (The venue determined game lines per NBA Sim sheet show @ Lakers -9.5, @ Phoenix -6.5)
The line correlating measures both have predominantly crowned the Lakers as superior in all respects, which doesn’t exclusively gauge performance, but rather what the oddsmakers think. The series odds favoring the Lakers at both -331 and -398, using the different expected win calculations (Pythagorean and Linear), are considerably higher than what is calculated by using efficiency statistics. In fact, Phoenix would be the favorite based purely on performance measured through efficiency if the Lakers didn’t have home court advantage. Pretty interesting what the numbers betray in this series.
Here are current series prices at Pinnacle (Sharp), SIA (Underdog Book), TheGreek(Sharp), and SBET(Market to Square, incompetent):
Obviously based on the numbers I have the value is on the Phoenix Suns. I have no idea what to make of the 40% juice SIA is offering. Perhaps they are commiserating for their gorgeous lack of awareness of market during their Phoenix Suns to win the west at 14/1 giveaway extravanganza before the playoffs began. I hope you were fortunate enough to take advantage.
If you do have Phoenix +1400 to win the West you have a few options to ensure either profit or takeback value.
Scenario 1 – Win / Null situation:
- Lakers -320 to win 1x or equivalent to original value of Phoenix wager.
Obviously this would decrease the value of the Suns bet from 1400 to 1080 if they happened to win, yet if the Lakers win you break even. Some would not even consider this an option, but when taking into account the emotional aspect of winning vs losing (or in this case breaking even), the factors that contribute to your overall bankroll can stabilize in proportion to emotional stability. A pecuniary loss holds 2.5x the emotional impact compared to that of a gain. This concept is always underrated
Scenario 2 – Win / Win Situation:
This can be done in several ways, either weight your potential win to one side, or find the ideal equilibrium. Now how do you calculate the value of an optimal scalp:
- Convert the line to winning probability -
Suns 1400 = 100/(1400 + 100) ≈ 6.7%
Lakers -320 = -320 / (-320 – 100) ≈ 76.2%
- Add the two win probabilities, the difference from 100% is your ROI -
6.7% + 76.2% = 82.9%
100% – 82.9% = 17.1% ROI
- This mean 6.7% of my investment should be on Suns (in this case 6.7% equals 1x), and 76.2% to be on the Lakers
76.2/6.7 = 11.43x
If 1x = $50, then 11.43x = $571.43
$571.43 at -320 on Lakers
$50 at 1400 on Suns
- The equilibrium of these two bets = Potential win – Potential Loss
$128.57 = 17.1%($571.43 + $50)
Under the scalping equilibrium, 17.1% ROI is about 2.5x units guaranteed overall return.
You can weight the investment strategy to either side.
Scenario 3 – Win / Lose Situation
- Do nothing and hope for a Phoenix series win to cash in 14/1.
Other possible scenarios include risking the possibility that Ph0enix performs well enough in the first few games to drop the series prices and secure an even higher gain, which is the way I am leaning. Or you can buy back Phoenix completely and bet the Lakers at whatever value you feel is appropriate.
You can now select potential finals matchups with the proper series format as an option via drop down box. Again I’m using team performance and the average line as the barometer for team by team metrics and assessments. I’ll analyze and revisit the data upon completion of round 1. Thus far Cleveland vs Boston should fall anywhere from -215 to -287 series price, and the home and home game lines would be Cleveland -6.5 and Boston -2. If its not then play the value.
Get sheet here (Enable Macros)
Now if you notice with Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, and Denver having a 3-4 point advantage in line compared to the actual market number. All home favorites would subsequently go 4-0 ATS.
Once you run a simulation, then pick a value from the drop down box to get the home and road lines if the two teams played. You can either simulate the entire playoffs or go round by round. Again this is an invariable WIP, even as the playoffs progress, I’ll probably continue to make changes just for the sake of my satisfaction.
Get the updated simulator here.