Posts Tagged Magic
Orlando Magic adjusted Deficit Odds
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, Featurific, NBA on May 27, 2010
With their latest win, the Magic are one step closer to an historic comeback, versus the Celtics from the recently much maligned city of Boston (see Bruins).
So what were their chances of winning four straight earlier in the series? Well the marked difference between team performance and average line, and how each compared to the series odds was addressed in the Eastern Conference Finals analysis here. But the disparity of the odds is never more evident than it is when calculating the chances of overcoming the 3-0 deficit. Here were the odds for the Magic down 3-0.
| Magic Odds of winning down 3-0 | ||||
| Metric | Pyth L/W% | Linear L/W% | Pyth Eff/W% | Linear Eff/W% |
| Odds | 1313 | 1341 | 569 | 607 |
And here are the current odds of overcoming a 3-2 deficit:
| Magic Odds of winning down 3-2 | ||||
| Metric | Pyth L/W% | Linear L/W% | Pyth Eff/W% | Linear Eff/W% |
| Odds | 265 | 269 | 154 | 160 |
The conspicuous difference in average line metrics (Pyth L, Linear L) and those based on performance (Pyth Eff, Linear Eff) suggests perhaps the oddsmakers weren’t sold on the Magic as a championship contender. Yet the reverse is true for Boston, which explains the drastic fluctuation in the magnitude when measuring the two team components. The season statistics are diametric opposites.
| Boston | Orlando | |
| Eff Margin | -3.67 | -7.46 |
| Avg Line | -5.12 | -6.49 |
Boston underperformed the market, roughly by a margin of 1.5 pts. And Orlando overperformed their market, by around 1 pt.
Sac-town Meltdown
‘Effin league. Here was the game line:
Magic -3.5
Kings +3.5
Here is the box score (TSN):
‘Effin NBA. This is why its been deemed the ‘Effin league. It’s a walking night terror. Especially for these degenerate losers.
NBA Finals Game 5: Opposing forces at work
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Lakers, Magic, NBA on June 13, 2009
Stan Vandy Gundy’s coaching acuity seems to have shrunken about a core of indecision. Maybe there is some truth to Shaq’s madness. Being a “master of panic” can be synonymous with indecision. In game 2, his scratch-lotto esque lineup played almost the entire 4th Quarter with no true PG. Rafer Alston sat on the bench watching Turkoglu try to push the ball up the floor. After losing game 2, Rafer “Skip to My Lou” Alston had a terrific game 3 en route to a Magic victory. Then once again in game 4, SVG benched Alston for much of the 4th Quarter, and watched the Magic and oft-injured PG Jameer Nelson choke the game away. Not sure if SVG has checked the Magic program lately, but Alston has about 3 inches on Nelson. Maybe Alston could have gotten a hand in Derek Fisher’s face at the end of game 4. Read the rest of this entry »
Magic let game 4 get away, lose 99-91
One word will be used to describe this series for the Magic. One word that is so incredulous, unmerciful, and all too common in sports. Choke. Whether justified or not, the Magic “choked” game 4 away, surrendering a 12 pt halftime lead and a 5 point cushion in the final minute of regulation to virtual stamp a Lakers Championship. Orlando missed an unforgettable 15 FTs, at home. Read the rest of this entry »
Magic 108 Lakers 104; NBA News
The final score conveniently fell right on the Vegas line. What’s important though is the Magic won the game. Why do we break down games? Magic shot 61%, Kobe went 5-10 from the FT line. Game over. Everything else is commentary.
Jay Mariotti thinks there is a “Dent in Kobe’s Armor.”
Other NBA News:
Raptors and Sixers swap Kapono for Reggie Evans.
Kings hire Westphal as head coach.
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