Most Valuable Player Odds |

NL/AL MVP

Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in MLB, MVP on July 21, 2012

Sportsbooks haven’t convened MVP odds yet because I haven’t posted them myself. This is an obvious observation to anybody that visits this blog on a yearly basis. I think we’d all agree on this. (I use the terms “we’d all” and “nobody in particular” interchangeably).

The formula behind setting a probability on a given player’s chances can be expressed as:

$P(v_i) = \begin{Bmatrix} \displaystyle \frac{2v_i}{\sum _j^n v_j}, & \mbox {if } v_i>0 \\ 0, & \mbox {if } v_i \leq 0 \end{Bmatrix}$

If a player doesn’t register a positive number of MVP points, the variable v, then he is simply ignored. The points are calculated slightly differently in the NL and AL, and the years 2000-2010 were used to fit the data. This has already been explained on multiple occasions.

For AL batters and pitchers:

$V_{ALb} = 57.28(PLAYOFFS) + 12.58(WAR) + 11.08(WPA) + 1.81(HR) + 1212.25(AVG) + 0.58(RBI) - 500$ $V_{ALp} = 50(PLAYOFFS) + 25(WAR) + 15(WPA) - 25(ERA) - 100$

The “PLAYOFFS” variable is either 1 or 0, and in season playoff projections are essentially current standings.

For all NL batters and pitchers:

$V_{NLb} = 78.41(playoffs) + 8.98(WAR) + 10.97(WPA) + 975.41(AVG) + 3.79(HR) + 0.93(RP) + 1.07(SB) - 553$ $V_{NLp} = 30(playoffs) + 10(WPA) + 25(WAR) - 150$

The motivation for using WAR and WPA as primary coefficients stemmed from this post, which I found quite interesting.

At the bottom of the post I’ve attached some relevant excel files. I’m not going to post anymore about this (I’ll do Cy Young this weekend and attach the necessary files), there really shouldn’t be any reason for me to have to. I also never want to have to use or look at an excel file ever again. But if I get enough requests via twitter/email/comments I’ll make a dedicated page that updates daily, probably using my own WAR calculations instead of bRef’s mess of drivel, and some server-side scripting.

Last year the formula picked Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera. Verlander I think can we all agree should not have won the MVP.

NL MVP

NAME	Team	bWAR	WPA	PROB	ODDS
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	5.1	3.2	52.15%	-108
Ryan Braun	MIL	3.9	3	33.73%	196
Joey Votto	CIN	4.5	5.2	33.42%	199
Melky Cabrera	SFG	3.8	2.7	18.64%	436
Johnny Cueto	CIN	4	2	15.18%	559
Carlos Gonzalez	COL	1.6	1.8	8.73%	1045
Carlos Beltran	STL	2.3	1.8	6.49%	1441
Matt Holliday	STL	3.6	2.8	6.32%	1482
Buster Posey	SFG	2.8	1.5	5.44%	1738
Ian Desmond	WSN	2.3	3.5	5.41%	1748
Pedro Alvarez	PIT	2	1.1	5.29%	1790
Jay Bruce	CIN	1.1	0.2	4.13%	2321
Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	3	2.5	2.34%	4174
Ryan Vogelsong	SFG	2.8	2.1	2.18%	4487
Brandon Phillips	CIN	2.2	0.8	0.55%	18082

AL MVP

NAME	TEAM	bWAR	WPA	PROB	ODDS
Mike Trout	TBR	5.3	0.5	34.66%	188
Robinson Cano	NYY	5	1.6	31.16%	221
Josh Hamilton	TEX	3.2	1.2	22.88%	337
Adrian Beltre	TEX	3	1.6	22.13%	352
Mark Trumbo	TBR	3.2	0	18.48%	441
Josh Reddick	NYY	3.8	4.2	14.96%	568
Alex Rios	TEX	2.6	1.7	14.61%	584
Miguel Cabrera	DET	3.5	2.2	14.42%	593
David Ortiz	BOS	2.7	2.5	6.46%	1448
Matt Harrison	TEX	4.1	2.5	5.95%	1581
Fernando Rodney	TBR	1.9	2.8	5.87%	1604
Justin Verlander	DET	5	3.1	3.51%	2749
Chris Sale	CHW	4.7	3	3.18%	3045
Edwin Encarnacion	TOR	3	2.5	1.72%	5716

Here are the files. The “NLMVP_ODDS” and “ALMVP_ODDS” files require a data refresh and some sorting. Feel free to change the coefficients, I don’t care. Some files may be irrelevant, not sure. I just threw a bunch of seemingly related files in an archive.

MLB_MVP_FILES.tar

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MVP and Cy Young Update

Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, Featurific, MLB on September 25, 2010

Sportsbook.com has gone mad, judging by their latest Cy Young and MVP odds I’m not sure if their staff is even lucid. The images below will explain.

Cy Young:

Based on the media hype, Felix Hernandez is garnering immense support lately, and here he’s not even listed. In that respect the Field at +400 looks gorgeous, to a lesser extent David Price has minimal value. Honestly I think with CC’s most recent performance he pitched himself right out of the race, and its down to Price and Felix.

The NL is OTB, regardless when they are released Halladay is the clear winner.

MVP:

Nothing has changed much since I last posted on the awards race. Cano still has some value at 5/1 and Sportsbook.com has failed to list Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki in the NL. What is sportsbook.com serving its employees? They have clearly failed to embrace reason here. Although I should say it probably doesn’t matter because Votto is the likely winner, with a high degree of certainty.

These are my latest MVP and Cy Young odds, updated from last week. I explained the process here, here, and here. Basically its taking various statistics that are crucial to pitcher/player performance and running a regression with voting points, using the years spanning from 2000-2009. What is interesting is a playoff appearance virtually decreases a pitcher’s chances of winning a Cy Young award, while the opposite is true for the MVP award. Now this could be just random variance, and over time the voting points may tend to be distributed towards players on teams that are more competitive. This year is the ideal scenario to test that statement, with King Felix, Sabathia, and David Price encompassing the tangible notion of team success breeding individual awards. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I think reciprocal altruism may play a part in the Cy Young award voting, simply because of the naming conventions. Perhaps I’ll address this concept at length. Reading W.D. Hamilton, Dawkins, and John Maynard Smith is a hobby of mine, so I’m semi-familiar with the concepts involved. If you are struck with curiosity, I suggest you refer to the above authors to have your consciousness raised on the matter.

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analysis, award, awards, baseball, baseball awards predictor, CC Sabathia, cy young chances, cy young odds, cy young race, database, David Price, Felix Hernandez, future, King Felix, line, Lines, MLB, mlb mvp odd, model, models, most valuable player odds, most valueable player odds, mvp odd, mvp odds, mvp prediction, mvp predictor, odd, Odds, regression, statistics and analyze, Votto

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NAME	WAR	G	HR	RBI	AVG	R	PROB	ODDS
Josh Hamilton	6.70	130	31	97	0.361	94	21.87%	3.5/1
Robinson Cano	6.04	160	30	110	0.307	106	17.72%	4.6/1
Miguel Cabrera	6.93	156	37	128	0.310	112	17.04%	4.8/1
Evan Longoria	8.10	161	23	111	0.288	102	14.98%	5.6/1
Delmon Young	0.43	152	19	112	0.293	77	12.76%	6.8/1
Mike Young	2.88	159	21	92	0.290	101	12.00%	7.3/1
Kevin Youkilis	4.58	109	20	66	0.295	82	11.16%	7.9/1
Jose Bautista	5.44	161	53	123	0.266	109	11.05%	8/1
Paul Konerko	5.22	151	39	112	0.294	93	10.06%	8.9/1
Nick Swisher	4.13	149	29	91	0.277	93	10.00%	8.9/1
Adrian Beltre	6.50	157	30	106	0.296	87	9.61%	9.4/1
Carl Crawford	4.90	155	17	92	0.298	110	9.09%	10/1
Mark Teixeira	3.71	158	32	107	0.274	112	9.07%	10/1
Joe Mauer	5.65	142	10	79	0.316	94	8.96%	10.1/1
Ben Zobrist	3.09	151	11	77	0.261	80	5.80%	16.2/1
Vernon Wells	2.88	158	31	86	0.277	80	5.23%	18.1/1
Jim Thome	3.52	112	27	63	0.281	51	5.05%	18.7/1
Vladimir Guerrero	1.92	155	29	114	0.303	86	4.19%	22.8/1
B.J. Upton	4.05	153	18	61	0.258	88	2.85%	34/1
David Ortiz	3.09	145	33	102	0.274	87	1.23%	80.2/1

NAME	WAR	HR	RBI	AVG	R	SB	PROB	ODDS
Joey Votto	5.93	37	112	0.309	106	16	33.75%	1.9/1
Albert Pujols	6.71	44	119	0.311	115	13	30.67%	2.2/1
Carlos Gonzalez	4.90	35	120	0.313	114	27	27.34%	2.6/1
Adrian Gonzalez	6.93	31	103	0.293	90	0	20.26%	3.9/1
Ryan Howard	2.33	32	110	0.280	89	1	16.51%	5/1
Jayson Werth	4.87	26	84	0.285	108	13	14.99%	5.6/1
Matt Holliday	5.44	29	107	0.308	97	9	11.66%	7.5/1
Aubrey Huff	5.61	26	89	0.285	101	6	11.35%	7.8/1
Troy Tulowitzki	5.54	28	96	0.299	88	11	9.87%	9.1/1
Shane Victorino	3.60	18	70	0.274	87	36	5.92%	15.8/1
Scott Rolen	4.13	21	87	0.287	69	1	3.32%	29.1/1
Brian McCann	4.87	21	79	0.282	65	5	2.97%	32.6/1
David Wright	4.05	27	101	0.292	85	20	2.70%	36/1
Dan Uggla	3.84	33	106	0.278	100	4	2.49%	39.1/1
Jason Heyward	4.87	19	75	0.285	86	11	2.27%	42.9/1
Hanley Ramirez	3.73	22	81	0.300	98	34	1.41%	70.1/1
Chase Utley	4.24	16	61	0.286	73	12	0.76%	129.9/1
Adam Dunn	3.81	37	102	0.265	87	0	0.66%	151.2/1
Ryan Zimmerman	5.61	26	90	0.294	90	4	0.56%	178.5/1
Ryan Braun	4.69	25	99	0.302	103	15	0.55%	180.1/1

NAME	WINS	LOSSES	K/9	BB/9	ERA	SV	WAR	PROB	ODDS
David Price	19	6	8.1	3.6	3.01	0	5.12	21.78%	3.5/1
CC Sabathia	21	7	7.4	2.8	3.48	0	5.40	21.35%	3.6/1
Jon Lester	19	9	9.7	3.4	3.27	0	5.44	19.56%	4.1/1
Clay Buchholz	17	7	6.2	3.6	2.87	0	5.33	19.43%	4.1/1
Joakim Soria	1	2	9.9	2.3	1.76	44	4.05	17.74%	4.6/1
Trevor Cahill	18	7	5.3	2.9	3.11	0	4.37	15.91%	5.2/1
Felix Hernandez	13	13	8.5	2.5	2.80	0	5.86	12.35%	7/1
Rafael Soriano	3	2	8	1.8	2.35	46	2.56	11.88%	7.4/1
Mariano Rivera	3	3	6.9	1.7	2.09	34	3.28	10.57%	8.4/1
Justin Verlander	18	9	8.6	3	3.66	0	4.16	8.53%	10.7/1
Jered Weaver	14	12	9.4	2.3	3.28	0	5.54	8.01%	11.4/1
Brian Duensing	11	2	5.4	2	2.34	0	4.05	7.64%	12/1
Andrew Bailey	1	3	7.7	2.4	1.55	27	2.66	6.48%	14.4/1
Carl Pavano	18	12	4.8	1.5	4.08	0	5.01	6.09%	15.4/1
C.J. Wilson	15	7	7.5	4.2	3.62	0	5.22	5.26%	18/1
Francisco Liriano	15	9	9.4	2.7	3.66	0	5.12	4.44%	21.5/1
Ervin Santana	18	10	6.9	2.9	4.11	0	3.52	1.18%	83.8/1
Alexi Ogando	4	1	8.6	3.5	1.16	0	1.81	0.94%	105.1/1
Neftali Feliz	3	3	9.3	2.4	2.86	39	2.13	0.86%	115.8/1

NAME	WINS	LOSSES	K/9	BB/9	ERA	SV	WAR	PROB	ODDS
Roy Halladay	21	11	7.9	1.1	3.11	0	7.09	33.34%	1.9/1
Adam Wainwright	20	12	8.3	2.2	2.76	0	5.97	31.94%	2.1/1
Ubaldo Jimenez	20	7	8.6	3.7	3.27	0	6.82	27.65%	2.6/1
Billy Wagner	7	2	12.9	2.6	2.10	37	2.75	20.29%	3.9/1
Tim Hudson	17	8	5.5	2.7	3.19	0	5.72	16.27%	5.1/1
Josh Johnson	12	6	9.1	2.4	2.69	0	6.82	15.29%	5.5/1
Heath Bell	5	0	11.7	3.7	2.61	46	2.45	11.65%	7.5/1
Brian Wilson	3	2	11.2	3.2	2.50	47	3.18	11.32%	7.8/1
John Axford	9	1	11.4	4.3	2.19	23	2.24	11.31%	7.8/1
Mat Latos	15	9	9.3	2.5	3.00	0	3.62	5.76%	16.3/1
Jaime Garcia	14	9	7.3	3.5	2.76	0	3.09	4.66%	20.4/1
Cole Hamels	13	11	9.2	2.5	3.24	0	5.51	4.24%	22.5/1
Clayton Kershaw	13	11	9.3	3.7	3.07	0	4.34	2.20%	44.5/1
Craig Kimbrel	3	0	17.4	6.8	0.56	1	0.53	2.12%	46.1/1
Johan Santana	12	10	6.5	2.5	3.07	0	4.90	1.97%	49.8/1

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