Using last year’s formula, I did a preliminary evaluation of potential NL Cy Young candidates. Why did I do this? Well my Betjm account was involuntarily transferred to HeritageSports, known for both their unwillingness to surrender to their clients the agreed upon usufruct of capital by way of currency, and for being arrogant. However, I stumbled upon an unexpected opportunity to profit from the transfer. At least intuition would tell me this is a value play. Thus the preliminary analysis.

Here is what HeritageSports is showing for NL Cy Young Odds.

Hopefully a brief survey is enough to see what I see.  Clayton Kershaw is 10/1 to win the Cy Young according to HeritageSports.  That’s an implied probability of 9.09% and fair odds of 5.4%.

Using last year’s formula, which correctly predicted the NL Cy Young winner, I extracted the top 10 contenders:

I threw in projected year-end WAR (Fangraphs version) as a frame of reference, hopefully to pacify my inability to count to 10.  WAR is a counting statistic (RBI, HR, etc…) and essentially uses IP and FIP to assess pitcher performance.  The Cy Young formula includes saves and wins, amongst other things, explaining some of the variance between the odds and WAR.  But the difference between Halladay and Kershaw, without even looking at the statistics, is considerably closer to the 1% in the table above as opposed to the 35% difference shown by HeritageSports.  In other words, Kershaw has value.  A few various pitching metrics will suffice to demonstrate how well Kershaw has pitched this year, and how he favorably compares to Halladay.

Because Halladay plays for a better team, his line needs to be adjusted to take this into account.  Coincidentally, the Dodgers are mathematically an average team.  Invoking simple arithmetic and Halladay’s adjusted line happens to be -119, same as Kershaw who has faced stiffer competition!

Obviously Cy Young voters do not (probably) care what Pinnacle thinks.  Though one can assume the offshore industry has access to the most sophisticated measures of assessing starting pitcher ability.  They have to, its their livelihood.  Paradoxically, HeritageSports (as well as The Greek) yet has the odds for Kershaw at 10/1 despite being part of the offshore industry and having a decent reputation.

Maybe HeritageSports knows something we don’t.  Let’s look at K and BB rates, and batted ball performance, the latter largely attributed to fortune or misfortune.  Perhaps we can resolve some possible regression to the mean.

A BABIP slightly above league average (.290) may be expected to decrease, strengthening Halladay’s numbers at length.  The ZiPS projections have Halladay at 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA going forward,  but ZiPS anticipates similar numbers from Kershaw, 6-2 2.83 ERA.  Bottom line, Kershaw is a machine.

If the last few years are any indication of voting trends, team performance is of little consequence.  Lincecum won back-to-back Cy Youngs in 2008-2009 and the Giants finished 4th and 3rd in the NL west respectively.  The last two AL trophies have been awarded to Felix Hernandez and Zack Grienke, both played for teams that were eliminated from playoff contention during spring training.

So for now, 1* on Kershaw at 10/1.  The risks with betting starting pitchers for end of season awards with two months left in the season are fairly high.  Injuries do happen, and from my experience, most degenerates start throwing big money at Cy Young futures once September hits (I completely grabbed this statement out of thin air).

I’ll revisit the odds again later, as well as address the AL.