Posts Tagged percentages
Sunday Elite 8 Consensus
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, Featurific, NCAAB, Tournaments on March 29, 2010
Same deal as before, just public numbers via screenshots from different sources (click to enlarge).
Public fades have fared pretty well this week. Both games today would merit public fade status, as well as point advantages from kenpom. The Duke game is interesting because of location and betting trends. Fans love to hate Duke, hence the public dog status held by Baylor warranted by the percentages. The oddsmakers denoted Baylor’s proximity to Houston compared to Duke’s to be worth a 1-1.5 points, which is reasonable enough. Though since the opener 4.5 the line has creeped up to 5. Kenpom has the spread at 6. Formulating all the aforementioned conditions into one sensible sentence, Duke is a #1 seed being heavily bet against by the public despite having the point advantage between the line and kenpom, with sharp money moving the line up a half point. Good luck Baylor bettors.
I would lean Duke, obviously, just based on the public numbers and the raw data, however I really don’t feel compelled to make a wager on this particular game in order to allow my future bets to take form.
Thursday Morning Sweet 16 Public Trends
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, Featurific, NCAAB, tournament on March 26, 2010
Numbers from various outlets shown by way of screenshots (click to enlarge):
It appears Kentucky has secured split-action chalk status, which is something I’ve noticed that works at almost 53-55% rate (I made that number up, nevertheless I love some split-action chalk). As well I think UK wins pretty easily. Syracuse is the heavy consensus favorite out of the four, with Kansas State closely behind. ‘Cuse and WVU are dealing with injuries, often synonymous with uncertainty and indecision in wagering trends. I was lucky enough to grab Butler +7.5 at SIA earlier in the week. Basically all four games are a coin toss, though.
NCAAB Shady Line Alert
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in kenpom, NCAAB, Picks on January 18, 2010
#15 Connecticut PK -110
Michigan +1 -110
$55 / $50
I feel like I should apologize, offer some sort of conciliatory remark for taking advantage of this situation. The Math Geeks have Michigan winning this game despite what perception would have us believe. Let them do all the homework, while the public throws away money with serene blindness in pursuit of pleasure.
The Big East has another game that found my interest, and it tips off early.
Georgetown +5 -110
Villanova -5 -110
$55 / $50
Early move down on the line, and being a market reader, not one to breakdown games, I’m inclined to look only a little further. To find something else that I can lean on. And once again the Math Geeks offer cushion lest I fell on the callous nature of a guess.
Proceed with caution, I suck at picking Big East games.
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