Posts Tagged Predictions
Here is what the CHONE starting pitcher exclusive lines are for Saturday. I won’t do this everyday, but this is just to betray a sense of application from the previous post. Indians and Brewers are carrying a lot of weight because of favorable season projections. If you want the automated spreadsheet, send me an email and I’ll be happy to reciprocate. Again process described here. Lines are early morning numbers from Pinnacle.
|LINEMAKER||CHONE PROJECTION||Pythagorean W%||HFA|
|TEAM||Money Line||ERA||SPx RA||RS||PythW%||LOG5||0.04||LINE (VIG = 5%)
|New York Mets||-120||4.47||724.14||803||0.55||0.55||0.59||-149.47|
|St Louis Cardinals||122||4.45||720.9||770||0.53||0.4||0.35||173.76|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||135||4.5||729||782||0.54||0.39||0.35||177.8|
|San Diego Padres||138||4.03||652.86||705||0.54||0.51||0.47||107.21|
|San Francisco Giants||115||5.17||837.54||711||0.42||0.32||0.36||167.07|
|Chicago White Sox||116||4.57||740.34||757||0.51||0.38||0.42||131.94|
|New York Yankees||-136||3.45||558.9||902||0.72||0.68||0.64||-187.82|
|Tampa Bay Rays||128||4.58||741.96||815||0.55||0.32||0.36||169.93|
|Toronto Blue Jays||134||5.11||827.82||687||0.41||0.45||0.41||137.39|
|Boston Red Sox||-117||3.73||604.26||822||0.65||0.5||0.45||114.51|
|Kansas City Royals||110||3.26||528.12||725||0.65||0.5||0.55||-126.56|
Houston coming through with the unexpected CUSA title after beating UTEP was a gorgeous state of affairs, combating my latest tendency for profit dwindling wagers. One big future play turned a terrible month into a serviceable one. That play owes much to my efforts in breaking down the CUSA tournament.
A quick survey of the games on schedule tomorrow, and Minnesota +4 immediately stands out, as my chalk stipulation had them at a better chance to win the BIG TEN tournament compared to offshore numbers. It appears to be a favorable situation for the Golden Gophers, the Buckeyes needed a heroic buzzer beater by All-American Evan Turner to sneak by Michigan, and then escaped with a hard fought, emotional 2OT victory versus Illinois. All the while Minnesota was out-willing Michigan State and demoralizing the sans Hummel Purdue Boilermakers. Minnesota should be a solid bet for tomorrow, but I think it peradventure to say I will make the wager based on regret, regret that I didn’t adhere to my own comprehensive analysis of Minnesota heading into the tournament, and missed out on the 20/1 odds appropriated by a variety of books. Could be seen as a forced wager, though seemingly a solid investment nonetheless.
Here are adjusted efficiency lines, and the lines based on conference spreads for each game:
|Georgia Tech||10.5||Georgia Tech||10.5|
|Mississippi St||8.5||Mississippi St||6|
|Ohio State||-5||Ohio State||-3|
Richmond has an advantage here, based on regular season performance and convened line. These numbers do not include tournament play. I give up on the A10 though, Dayton and Rhode Island have been the proverbial thorn in my degenerated side, inducing much head banging against wall to quell the pain of being imminently screwed. Just Minnesota for me.
Here are a few quick facts for bettors and peasants to divest in:
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Top 10 in rushing YBA both offensively and defensively, according to Footballoutsiders.com
- 2nd toughest regular season schedule among active playoff teams. (Sagarin)
- Vegas never had them lower than a TD underdog.
- 16th in the league in turnovers.
- Rookie QBs are 4-8 All-time in the playoffs in the modern era
The season is only 10 weeks away, and some very intriguing matchups kick-off in early September: Oregon @ Boise State, BYU vs Oklahoma, Virginia Tech vs Alabama, Charleston Southern @ Florida, Georgia @ Oklahoma State, USC @ Ohio State. The end of the NBA finals is often followed by College Football preseason polls emanating throughout the internets. Here is our preseason top 10, using a very simple formula. The formula includes last year’s finish, QB situation, returning starters, and schedule. Read the rest of this entry »