Posts Tagged Regional Final
NCAA Tourney KP vs Pinny
Posted by Rufio Magillicutty in Betting, NCAAB, Pinnacle on March 15, 2012
Same thing as conference tournaments. SEC Field hit at 3/1 odds, the other four lost. A brief survey of a hypothetical bankroll outcome demonstrated the prodigious and frightening force of the Kelly Criterion and all the emotional turmoil likely to beget its constituency. Flat bettors would have come away in the negative, but with an air of optimism and satisfaction having lingered for hitting a future.
KenPom’s LOG5 predictions are here. If you don’t know what that means, to wit:
LOG5 = (a – a * b)/(a + b – 2 * a * b)
“a” and “b” here are winning percentages. KenPom uses his pythagorean winning percentages calculated by PPP and tempo rather than just points scored for and against, with an exponent of around 12.
(Numbers in each cell represent percentages sans the non-obligatory “%” symbol).
| TOP 5 | |||
| REGION | CHAMP | ||
| Ohio St | 10.54 | Ohio St | 3.55 |
| Mich St | 7.64 | Wisconsin | 2.24 |
| Wisconsin | 6.97 | Mich St | 1.98 |
| Kansas | 6.8 | Kansas | 1.74 |
| Indiana | 3.38 | Indiana | 0.67 |
Mr. Pomeroy “likes” the Big Ten, Pinnacle doesn’t.
| SOUTH | ||||||
| KP | PINNY | KP-P | ||||
| TEAM | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP |
| Kentucky | 47.9 | 19.7 | 47.4 | 27.78 | 0.5 | -8.08 |
| Wichita St | 11.8 | 2.6 | 8.43 | 2.32 | 3.37 | 0.28 |
| Indiana | 9.2 | 1.7 | 5.82 | 1.03 | 3.38 | 0.67 |
| Baylor | 10.9 | 1.7 | 12.08 | 2.82 | -1.18 | -1.12 |
| Duke | 9.5 | 1.7 | 12.08 | 4.8 | -2.58 | -3.1 |
| UNLV | 3 | 0.2 | 3.51 | 0.73 | -0.51 | -0.53 |
| Iowa St. | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.31 | 0.42 | 0.39 | -0.32 |
| Notre Dame | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.96 | 0.44 | -0.06 | -0.34 |
| Uconn | 0.9 | 0.06 | 2.58 | 1.07 | -1.68 | -1.01 |
| Xavier | 0.09 | 0.04 | 1.32 | 0.43 | -1.23 | -0.39 |
| S Dakota St. | 0.8 | 0.03 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.39 | -0.26 |
| VCU | 0.5 | 0.02 | 0.79 | 0.29 | -0.29 | -0.27 |
| Colorado | 0.4 | 0.01 | 0.67 | 0.29 | -0.27 | -0.28 |
| NMSU | 0.3 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 0.35 | -0.11 | -0.34 |
| Lehigh | 0.3 | 0.007 | 0.4 | 0.21 | -0.1 | -0.203 |
| WKY | 0.001 | 0.82 | 0.32 | -0.819 | -0.32 | |
| MIDWEST | ||||||
| KP | PINNY | KP-P | ||||
| TEAM | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP |
| UNC | 28.5 | 6.6 | 32.95 | 13.64 | -4.45 | -7.04 |
| Kansas | 33.7 | 9.1 | 26.9 | 7.36 | 6.8 | 1.74 |
| Gtown | 9.7 | 1.4 | 7.31 | 1.45 | 2.39 | -0.05 |
| Michigan | 5.7 | 0.5 | 4.57 | 0.88 | 1.13 | -0.38 |
| Temple | 2.3 | 0.1 | 3.92 | 0.64 | -1.62 | -0.54 |
| SDSU | 0.9 | 0.03 | 2.65 | 0.52 | -1.75 | -0.49 |
| St. Mary’s | 1.2 | 0.05 | 2.65 | 0.59 | -1.45 | -0.54 |
| Creighton | 2 | 0.1 | 1.61 | 0.43 | 0.39 | -0.33 |
| Alabama | 3.1 | 0.2 | 2.04 | 0.57 | 1.06 | -0.37 |
| Purdue | 3.9 | 0.3 | 3.92 | 0.73 | -0.02 | -0.43 |
| NC State | 1.5 | 0.07 | 4.57 | 0.73 | -3.07 | -0.66 |
| USF | 0.3 | 0.008 | 0.81 | 0.66 | -0.51 | -0.652 |
| Ohio | 0.5 | 0.01 | 0.81 | 0.29 | -0.31 | -0.28 |
| Belmont | 4 | 0.03 | 3.92 | 0.85 | 0.08 | -0.82 |
| Detroit | 0.07 | 0.54 | 0.21 | -0.47 | -0.21 | |
| Vermont | 0.03 | 0.84 | 0.39 | -0.81 | -0.39 | |
| WEST | ||||||
| KP | PINNY | KP-P | ||||
| TEAM | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP |
| Mich St | 35.2 | 12.4 | 27.56 | 10.42 | 7.64 | 1.98 |
| Missouri | 23.1 | 5.3 | 22.63 | 8.31 | 0.47 | -3.01 |
| Memphis | 8.2 | 1.7 | 5.67 | 1.61 | 2.53 | 0.09 |
| New Mexico | 7.1 | 1 | 7.84 | 1.33 | -0.74 | -0.33 |
| Marquette | 7.5 | 0.9 | 9 | 2.34 | -1.5 | -1.44 |
| Loserville | 4.7 | 0.5 | 9.08 | 2.61 | -4.38 | -2.11 |
| Florida | 4.4 | 0.5 | 3.97 | 0.8 | 0.43 | -0.3 |
| St. Louis | 3.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.57 | 1.2 | -0.07 |
| Virginia | 2.5 | 0.2 | 1.78 | 0.43 | 0.72 | -0.23 |
| Murray St. | 1.4 | 0.07 | 3.05 | 0.73 | -1.65 | -0.66 |
| LBSU | 1 | 0.06 | 1.3 | 0.29 | -0.3 | -0.23 |
| BYU | 0.5 | 0.02 | 3.91 | 0.97 | -3.41 | -0.95 |
| Davidson | 0.3 | 0.009 | 0.71 | 0.29 | -0.41 | -0.281 |
| Colorado St. | 0.4 | 0.008 | 0.52 | 0.29 | -0.12 | -0.282 |
| LIU | 0.003 | 0.39 | 0.17 | -0.387 | -0.17 | |
| Norfolk St | 0.0001 | 0.39 | 0.21 | -0.3899 | -0.21 | |
| EAST | ||||||
| KP | PINNY | KP-P | ||||
| TEAM | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP | REGION | CHAMP |
| Syracuse | 17.5 | 4.4 | 18.22 | 5.72 | -0.72 | -1.32 |
| Ohio St | 45.9 | 19.3 | 35.36 | 15.75 | 10.54 | 3.55 |
| FSU | 3.9 | 0.5 | 9.29 | 4.08 | -5.39 | -3.58 |
| Wisconsin | 16.2 | 4.2 | 9.23 | 1.96 | 6.97 | 2.24 |
| Vanderbilt | 4.9 | 0.8 | 7.92 | 2.81 | -3.02 | -2.01 |
| Cincinnati | 1.8 | 0.2 | 4.39 | 1.03 | -2.59 | -0.83 |
| Gonzaga | 1.7 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 0.59 | -0.7 | -0.49 |
| Kansas St | 3.4 | 0.4 | 4.39 | 0.98 | -0.99 | -0.58 |
| S. Miss | 0.2 | 0.006 | 0.98 | 0.34 | -0.78 | -0.334 |
| WVU | 0.8 | 0.05 | 2.4 | 0.59 | -1.6 | -0.54 |
| Texas | 2.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 0.52 | 0.1 | -0.32 |
| Harvard | 0.7 | 0.04 | 1.11 | 0.29 | -0.41 | -0.25 |
| Montana | 0.09 | 0.002 | 0.79 | 0.29 | -0.7 | -0.288 |
| St. Bona | 0.6 | 0.03 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 0.07 | -0.26 |
| Loyola | 0.02 | 0.4 | 0.17 | -0.38 | -0.17 | |
| UNC-Ashe | 0.03 | 0.4 | 0.17 | -0.37 | -0.17 | |
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